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There’s only one cold front on my radar for next week in Houston, and it might make its grand entrance on Christmas morning.
Now, before we dive into the details, let me just say - if this weren’t the holidays, I wouldn’t be getting too caught up in a forecast that’s still eight days out.
Things can (and often do) shift, especially with cold fronts.
They have a sneaky habit of showing up a little earlier than forecast when you’re looking this far ahead.
So, let’s treat this forecast as a “here’s what could happen” scenario, and we’ll iron out the details as we get closer to Christmas and the start of Hanukkah, which fall on the same day this year.
For now, let’s talk about what this front might bring to town!
Let’s kick things off with the long-range outlook.
I have the European model and the American model duking it out, and right now, they’re running about 24 hours apart! In my experience, the European model tends to have a better track record when we’re this far out. So, I’m betting the American model will catch up to the Euro’s timing in the next day or two. That’s why I’m not putting any rain chances on the board for next Thursday, which, by the way, is the start of Kwanzaa. But here’s the catch - if the Euro decides to speed things up, we could be looking at a soggy Christmas Eve. Stay tuned, because this forecast is still shaping up.
Let’s rip the Band-Aid off now—there will not be a white Christmas in Houston this year. I know, I know, but the temperatures are just too warm, and this front isn’t dragging any arctic air along for the ride. The timing does bring back memories of 2004 - Houston’s first and only white Christmas. Hard to believe that was 20 years ago! Back then, the air behind the front was much colder, and after it passed through, an area of low pressure tracked in from the west. When the precipitation started falling, boom - it turned to snow. This time around? We have no arctic air and no low-pressure system, so while it won’t be a winter wonderland, at least we won’t have to bundle up.
Here’s the fun part - this is a newsletter, so we all get to see exactly how my long-range forecast pans out. No take-backs, no edits once I hit send. It’s like weather accountability, delivered straight to your inbox! Now, because I am expecting some changes (it’s still a week away, after all), the KPRC 2 Storm Tracker team will keep fine-tuning the holiday forecast for you over at click2houston.com. So, check back there for the latest updates as we get closer to Christmas!
