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Tropics Watch


Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2020. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

Posted 4 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Tropics Watch Satellite

Gulf of Mexico

A low pressure is centered near the Florida Keys with a surface trough which extends into the northeast Gulf to 85W. No significant activity is seen in the Gulf with this trough. Over the bay of Campeche, a second trough is seen from 91W to 93W. Early ascat data indicates moderate to locally fresh wind east of the trough and lighter winds in the eastern Gulf. Early altimeter pass indicated seas are running 3-6 ft within these fresh winds, while elsewhere seas remain 3 ft or less.

High pressure will build over the northeast Gulf today and move southward across the eastern Gulf through wed night. A cold front will approach the northern Gulf coast thu and thu night, move across the northern Gulf waters fri, then stall and weaken fri night into sat. Expect strengthening southerly winds across the Gulf sat night as low pressure deepens over the southeast United States. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may reduce visibilities over the bay of Campeche.

Caribbean Sea

Fresh to strong winds are ongoing near the coast of Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela between the colombian low and a high pressure ridge building over the southwest north Atlantic. Altimeter pass confirmed seas peaking from 8-10 ft offshore of barranquilla within the strongest winds. Fresh easterly winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds are occurring elsewhere over the southern Caribbean, while light to moderate trades prevail across the rest of the basin. Dry air associated with a mid-level ridge over the northwest Caribbean continues to suppress any convective activity over the basin.

Building high pressure over the southwest north Atlantic waters will support fresh to strong winds along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through thu. Fresh winds will pulse each night over the Gulf of Honduras, possibly reaching strong speeds by this weekend. A trough will linger in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands through wed while lifting northward. Long- period northerly swell will continue affecting the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through tonight. Another round of northerly swell will impact these waters late thu night into this weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough extends from a 1017 mb low centered over the fl keys. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen over the straits of fl and northwest Bahamas. Further east, a surface trough extends from 30W to 41W. Moderate to locally southwest fresh winds north of 24N to 30N between 24W-41W. Isolated showers persist near the trough. A 1021 mb high pressure remains across the eastern Atlantic near the canary islands. In the western Atlantic, high pressure builds anchored by a 1021 mb high near 75W. Northerly swell remains over much of the central Atlantic water, with 8-12 ft seas found north of 25N.

High pressure offshore of Florida will track southeast through wed, then maintain a ridge across the southern waters through late week. A trough will cross the northern waters wed night and thu. A cold front is expected to move southeast across the southwest north Atlantic waters late thu night through sat night.

Posted 1 day, 20 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Mmt

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature