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For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche is producing poorly organized shower activity. Environmental conditions appear favorable for slow development, and a tropical depression could form late today or on Saturday while the system moves northwestward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. However, by Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of development. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, medium, 40 percent.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Special Features

A broad area of low pressure is emerging over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and it continues to produce disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions appear favorable for slow development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves northwestward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late today or on Saturday. However, by Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of development. There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours and within the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 26W from 02N-19N, moving westward about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 20W and 34W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 21N59W to 04N55W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over the northern portion of the wave mainly N of 17N.

Another tropical wave extends its axis near 92W from 21N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are occurring over the Bay of Campeche. Please see the Special Features section above for information on the potential for tropical cyclone development of this system.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 20N16W to 08N44W. The ITCZ continues from 08N44W to 11N55W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave described in the section above, scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ.

Gulf Of Mexico

Please see the Special Features section above for potential tropical cyclone development associated with a tropical wave in the Bay of Campeche.

An outflow boundary extends across the NW Gulf mainly N of 27N and W of 90W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle anticyclonic winds across most of the basin except over the Bay of Campeche, where moderate easterly winds are noted. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, the strong tropical wave over the western Yucatan Peninsula will sustain showers and thunderstorms in the Bay of Campeche through Sat.

Caribbean Sea

Enhanced by an upper-level trough near central Cuba, convergent trades are generating scattered showers south of Cuba and near Hispaniola.

The Atlantic ridge extending southwestward from the 1028 mb Azores High continues to channel NE to E trades across the entire basin. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas over the south-central basin, just north of Colombia. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft exist at the northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin, including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge north of the region will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Sat, then gradually weaken through Mon. A broad tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean today, and the central Caribbean tonight/Sat.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin.

A surface trough reaching northeastward from southwest Florida to off the northern Florida coast is producing scattered showers over the central Florida and the offshore waters east of northern Florida. A robust upper-level low over the north-central Atlantic at 31N47W is triggering scattered moderate convection north of 28N between 45W and 50W. A surface trough near 51W is causing scattered showers from 14N to 17N between 50W and 54W.

Light to gentle SE to SW winds and 2 to 4 ft seas near the Atlantic ridge related to the 1027 mb Azores High can be found north of 25N between 45W and the Florida/Georgia coast. Farther south, gentle to moderate NE to ENE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident from 11N to 25N between 25W and the Bahamas. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh NNE trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft are found north of 20N between the northwest African coast and 25W. Gentle to moderate monsoonal and southerly winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging from the Azores High to the Bahamas is expected to gradually shift northward to along 30N through Sat, then N of the area by Mon night. A frontal boundary N of 30N will gradually lift northward through today while weakening. Gentle to moderate easterly winds S of 25N will reach moderate to fresh speeds through Sun as a tropical wave moves across the eastern and central Caribbean.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Era