Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis extends from 07N11W southwestward to 03N17W, where it transitions to 00N30W to 01S47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 23W-30W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 31W-35W and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 33W-38W.

Gulf Of America

A late-season cold front extends from north-central Florida southwestward to 27N88W and to a weak 1018 mb low at 25N96W. A cold front extends from the low south-southwestward to inland Mexico just south of Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to strong north- northeast winds are behind the front as noted in recent scatterometer satellite data. Seas of 6 to 9 ft with these winds are indicated in buoy data, and also confirmed by altimeter satellite data. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are east of the front. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. A surface trough is analyzed in the central Bay of Campeche. Fresh northeast winds over the Bay of Campeche are somewhat supported by the trough. Seas there are 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong north to northeast winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the cold front as it moves southward across the northern Gulf through Mon. The front is then expected to stall from the Straits of Florida to South Texas Mon night. On Tue, the western portion of this boundary will gradually dissipate over the central and western Gulf, while the eastern portion will resume moving southward into Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. In the wake of the front, gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will return to the Gulf on Thu.

Caribbean Sea

A fairly weak pressure gradient is generally allowing for moderate or weaker trades to exist across the basin, with the except for locally fresh trades possible in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, along the southern tip of Hispaniola, and within Atlantic Passages in the Lesser Antilles. Seas are about 3 to 5 ft across the basin, with locally higher seas in the Atlantic Passages of the Lesser Antilles.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over some of the interior sections of central Cuba. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are just inland the eastern tip of eastern Cuba, and along and just inland and offshore the southern coast of Jamaica.

For the forecast, a weaker than usual pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate winds through Tue. Fresh to strong northeast winds may develop Tue night and Wed across the Windward Passage and at the lee of Cuba associated with a late- season cold front moving across Cuba.

Atlantic Ocean

A late-season cold front has just emerged along the coast of northeast Florida. It extends southwestward across north-central Florida and to the Gulf of America. Light northwest winds are behind the front along with seas of 3 to 4 ft. A pre-frontal trough extends from near 31N77.5W to near Daytona Beach. An area of isolated showers and thunderstorms is located from 26N to 28N and west 75W to inland South Florida. Similar activity is seen from 24N to 27N between 71W and 75W. Broad anticyclonic flow around a high pressure ridge that extends from near 31N53W to 28N69W dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, with its associated gradient bringing gentle to moderate trades across most of the basin. Seas are in the range of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, winds behind the aforementioned late- season cold front will become fresh to strong, north to northeast in direction tonight. Rough seas will follow the front as it reaches from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Mon afternoon, and from near 31N60W to central Cuba by Tue afternoon. Winds will begin to diminish Tue night as the front stalls and dissipates along 22N by late Wed. High pressure will settle in between northeast Florida and Bermuda in the wake of the front. Large north swell may linger near the dissipating front Wed into Thu, including waters near the Windward Passage.

Posted 5 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Aguirre