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Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system is centered between the Madeira Islands and the Azores. This system has become less organized during the past 24 hours, and environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development as the system moves southwestward during the next day or two. Although subtropical development is now unlikely, this system will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands and the Azores through Wednesday. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.

This will be the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued on this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on June 1, 2021, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, 10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW.

Posted 3 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Tropics Watch Satellite

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 02N35W to 00N39W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N-03N between 16W-40W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A ridge centered on 1019 mb high pressure near 29N90W dominates the Gulf waters, supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and 2-3 ft seas across the basin. Some low clouds are noted over the far western Gulf between 20N and 26N, but no significant showers are evident from satellite imagery.

High pressure will prevail across the basin through Fri. A low pressure system is expected develop in the western Gulf early Fri, then deepen and move rapidly eastward across the Gulf through Sat. The low pressure will move E of the area by Sat night but the pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to strong NE-E winds over the eastern half of the Gulf on Sun, with seas building to 10 ft.

Caribbean Sea

A slow moving cold front is across the NW Caribbean from central Cuba to the Yucatan peninsula near 20N87W. No significant winds or showers are associated with the boundary. The front will reach from eastern Cuba to north of Belize Fri morning, then stall and dissipate over the NW Caribbean waters Fri night and Sat. Scatterometer data shows fresh NE winds near the coast of Colombia, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the region. Typical shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is moving across the area, producing isolated passing showers.

The cold front will stall overnight then dissipate and lift north of the area through Fri evening. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will prevail in the southern Caribbean through Sun, with gentle to moderate winds expected elsewhere. A cold front is expected to move into the northwest Gulf Sat night and Sun, stall from the Windward Passage to Belize by Sun night, then dissipate Mon into Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will follow the front over the western Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front passes through 32N59W across the Bahamas to central Cuba near 22N78W. A narrow band of clouds and showers is noted ahead of the front north of 23N. The front will extend from 32N55W to eastern Cuba on Fri, then stall and drift northward Fri night and Sat as a low pressure moves from the Gulf of Mexico into the SW N Atlantic.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a 1029 mb high pressure located near the Azores. The associated ridge covers the waters between the Canary Islands and the NE Caribbean. Strong westerly winds are transporting upper level moisture from the deep tropics near South America to western Africa, including the Cabo Verde Islands.

The cold front will weaken and stall from 24N65W to eastern Cuba on Fri. Northerly winds will follow the front through Fri, then shift from the east Sat, increasing north of 27N Sat night. A developing low pressure system will move rapidly from central Florida to Bermuda Sat night and Sun, possibly accompanied by strong to near-gale force winds, and dragging a cold front across the region through early next week. High pressure will build north of 27N by Mon, supporting strong NE winds south of 27N through Tue.

Posted 1 hour, 18 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Mundell

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature