Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure well north of the region and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will lead to gale force winds off northwest Colombia through early this morning and then again on tonight along with very rough seas. This gradient will weaken some early next week as a cold front moves into the western Atlantic allowing for the pulsing gale conditions to end Mon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis near 17W from 01N to 12N, moving westward at about 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 00N to 13N between 10W and 24W.

A tropical wave is about 660 nmi SE of the Windward Islands with axis near 52W, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 12N between 48W and 56W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 11N15W to 07N18W. The ITCZ axis extends from 02N19W to 00N35W to near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08S to 08N between 29W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

The interaction between a middle level trough and a surface trough in the NW Gulf results in scattered showers and strong thunderstorms across the NE Mexico offshore waters. A 1002 mb low near Veracruz, Mexico is supporting numerous moderate to strong convection offshore Veracruz and in the western Bay of Campeche. Winds are moderate to fresh from the SE offshore Louisiana and over the northern Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere, except in the areas of strong convection where strong to gusty winds are likely. Seas basin-wide are slight to moderate, except for potentially locally rough seas in the areas of strong convection.

For the forecast, unsettled weather conditions will persist in the area ahead of the next front. Farther south, winds will pulse to strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings through Sun night. Looking ahead, another cold front will move into the northern Gulf waters early Mon morning, and reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late Mon, followed by moderate to locally strong N to NE winds. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are expected off Veracruz Mon night into Tue morning. Scattered to numerous showers and strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front. Conditions will improve across the Gulf Tue night into Wed as the front weakens.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the Special Features for information on an ongoing gale warning for offshore Colombia.

Aside from the gale warning information, the pressure gradient between broad high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures in the deep tropics is resulting in fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds and locally rough seas in the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between the 1028 mb high pressure system over the NW Atlantic and lower pressures in the deep tropics will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds with rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through late next week, including the Gulf of Venezuela. During the nighttime hours through Sun night, these winds are expected to reach gale-force off northwestern Colombia. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale E winds and rough seas are also anticipated in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak stationary front lingers south of Bermuda, while divergence aloft supports a few showers and isolated thunderstorms off NE Florida. High pressure dominates the remainder of the basin, supporting fresh E to SE winds off northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere in the subtropics. In the tropical Atlantic, NE to E winds are mainly fresh. Seas are mainly moderate basin- wide.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will continue to dominate, supporting fresh to locally strong winds off northern Hispaniola through Mon night. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to reach the waters off NE Florida late Mon and move eastward while weakening Tue and Wed. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas will follow the front, diminishing quickly Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are possible near the front. Building ridge over the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh SE-S winds and moderate to rough seas E of 70W late next week.

Posted 47 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos