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Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Posted 1 hour, 53 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropics Watch Satellite

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is just offshore of western Africa, along 18W/19W, from 21N southward, moving west at 15-20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03.5N to 11.5N between 20W and the west coast of Africa.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W, southward of 18N, moving west at 15 knots. Precipitation: the wave is moving through the area of nearby ITCZ precipitation. Saharan air is noted ahead and north of 15N across the wave axis and is producing low level stratocumulus. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06.5N to 12N between 30W and 37W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W from 17N southward, moving west at 20 knots. This wave has been accompanied by Saharan air and diminishing dust to the south of 14N. Small clusters of moderate convection are noted well ahead and well behind the wave axis across portions of coastal Venezuela.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W, from 20N southward, moving westward 20 to 25 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of 13N between 76W and 81W and extend southward to 06N across the eastern Pacific.

A tropical wave across the eastern Pacific along 93W/94W extends northward across southern Mexico to the central bay of Campeche along 20N, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is interacting with a middle to upper level trough from the central Gulf to interior Mexico west of Veracruz. Associated convection is noted across southern Mexico and the adjacent eastern Pacific waters.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-Bissau, near 16W, to 36W. The ITCZ is along 40W, to 47W to 56W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted within 240 nm either side of The Monsoon Trough between 23W and 33W, and within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 40W and 50W.

Gulf of Mexico

An middle to upper level trough extends from central Florida coast, southwestward, across the southwest corner of the Gulf of Mexico and into south central Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the area, mostly in the northwest corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection extends across the southeast Gulf from 22.5N to 25N between 90W and the Florida Keys. A few clusters of moderate convection are moving southeastward across the Florida big bend waters.

A 1016 mb high pressure is centered near 91W and is producing anticyclonic flow across the basin. Weak low level troughing extending east to west across the Florida panhandle is helping to maintain moderate westerly winds across the northeast Gulf to the mouth of the Mississippi river. This pattern will prevail through mon to yield generally fair to benign marine conditions. However, expect fresh southeast winds at times in the southwest Gulf of Mexico early next week. West to northwest winds across the northeast Gulf waters will also yield periods of active weather.

Caribbean Sea

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W moving westward 20 knots. This wave remains surrounded by Saharan air. A second tropical wave is along 78W moving westward 20 to 25 kt. A ridge extends from a central Atlantic Ocean high pressure center, WSW to the northwest Bahamas. The ridge will maintain fresh to occasionally strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea into Wednesday. Pulses of fresh to locally strong winds also are possible early next week in the Gulf of Honduras.

Atlantic Ocean

An upper level trough extends from a 53W cyclonic circulation center, southwestward, to the eastern Caribbean Sea, and the 67W/68W tropical wave.

A stationary front extends from coastal Georgia along 32N, with moderate to fresh southwest winds south of the boundary from northeast Florida to west of Bermuda.

A high pressure center is in the central Atlantic Ocean. A ridge extends WSW, from the center, to the northwest Bahamas. The ridge will persist through early next week. Low pressure offshore of cape hatteras will move eastward Sunday and maintain southwest winds across the northwest offshore waters. Expect rainshowers and thunderstorms with gusty winds, to the areas that are to the north of 27N.

Mostly sunny and uncomfortably warm temperatures are expected across south Florida the remainder of this week under the influence of a ridge. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast in the afternoon and early evening hours.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature