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Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2022. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

Posted 1 month, 2 weeks ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure across the W Atlantic and the Colombian low will support pulsing winds to minimal gale force across the S central Caribbean, particularly within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia tonight, Thu and Fri nights. Seas will build and reach 10 to 12 ft during gale conditions.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to emerge from the coast of Texas into the NW Gulf early Thu morning, then gradually move southeastward through Fri night. Near-gale to gale winds behind the front will impact the NW and W central Gulf by late Thu afternoon, spreading to the SW Gulf late Thu night. Seas are expected to build and reach 12 to 14 ft during the highest winds.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on both Gale Warnings.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough mainly remains over the African continent. An ITCZ extends from SW of Sierra Leone at 03N17W through 03N30W to N of Sao Luis, Brazil at 02N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the Equator to 08N between 17W and 45W.

Gulf Of Mexico

Refer to the Special Features section above for more information on a Gale Warning.

A board surface ridge stretches southwestward from Florida to S Mexico. This feature is supporting moderate with locally fresh southerly winds across the W Gulf with seas at 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail over the E Gulf.

For the forecast, a cold front is forecast to emerge from the coast of Texas late tonight. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to Brownsville, Texas on Thu morning, and from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico late Thu night. Strong northerly winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front through Sat afternoon, when it will extend from Ft. Myers, Florida to the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Gale conditions are forecast over the W central and SW Gulf Thu through Fri. The front is forecast to exit the southeast Gulf early Sun.

Caribbean Sea

Refer to the Special Features section above for more information on a Gale Warning.

A surface trough is triggering scattered showers across the NW basin, including W Cuba and the Gulf of Honduras. A NE to ENE trade-wind pattern continues across much of the basin. Other than the gale winds near the Colombian coast, fresh to locally strong winds and seas of 9 to 11 ft are present for the S central basin. Moderate to fresh winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are found across the E and N central basin. Mostly moderate trades with seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure across the W Atlantic and the Colombian low will support pulsing winds to minimal gale force across the S central Caribbean tonight, Thu and Fri nights. Seas will peak at 10 to 12 ft with these winds. The aerial extent of the fresh to strong trades will increase tonight and persist through Fri night, covering mainly the waters between 68W and 80W. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. A weakening cold front is forecast to enter the far NW Gulf late this weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front curves southwestward from the N central Atlantic across 31N44W to near 25N56W, then continues west-southwestward as a stationary front to N of the SE Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring up to 100 nm from either side of this boundary. Farther E, another cold front extends southwestward from NW of Canary Islands across 31N20W to 26N22W, then becomes a surface trough and continues west-southwestward to 23N44W. Scattered showers are evident near and up to 80 nm SE and S of these features. Convergent trade winds are producing scattered showers from 05N to 10N between 46W and Guyana-Suriname coast. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds are found near and behind the cold/stationary front, N of 24N between 46W and 71W. Similar W to NW winds are present W of the second cold front, N of 26N between 21W and 40W. Seas in both areas range from 9 to 13 ft due to wind waves and northerly swells. Gentle to moderate ESE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft exist from the central Bahamas northward, between 71W and the Florida/Georgia coast. Moderate with locally fresh SE winds with seas at 5 to 7 ft are evident near the Canary Islands N of 26N between the NW African coast and 21W. Farther SW, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft are noted from 05N to 23N between 30W and the SE Bahamas/Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast W of 65W, a stationary front extends from 23N65W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. The front will lift N and dissipate overnight. High pressure will be in control of the weather pattern across the area through Thu. The next cold front is forecast to move offshore from N Florida on Fri, accompanied by fresh to strong winds. The front will likely reach from 31N75W to central Florida Sat morning.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Chan

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature