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Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A well-defined low pressure system located about 160 miles east of Daytona Beach, Florida, continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity mainly east through south of the center. Environmental conditions are expected to remain marginally conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression could still form later today or early Monday while the low moves generally westward at 5 to 10 mph toward the east coast of Florida. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this afternoon, if necessary. Interests in Florida should continue to monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, medium, 50 percent.

Posted 33 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Stewart

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

A 1012 mb low is centered near 28N77W, about 160 nm east of Cape Canaveral, Florida. This low continues to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Bahamas, N of 25N between 75W and 78W. However, the system lacks organized convection activity near its center and therefore has not met the criteria to be designated a tropical depression. Environmental conditions are expected to remain marginally conducive for additional development, and tropical depression could still form overnight or on Sunday while the low moves generally westward at 10 knots towards the east coast of Florida. Interests in Florida should continue to monitor the progress of this system. This system has a medium chance of development within 48 hours and the next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more information.

Heavy rainfall is expected to continue in Southern Central America, particularly in Panama, Costa Rica and Southern Nicaragua. High moisture content, persistent monsoon flow, and favorable conditions aloft will continue to support scattered to numerous strong convection capable of producing torrential rain through Monday. Heavy rainfall in these areas could cause significant flooding and mudslides.

Tropical Waves

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 20W from 19N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted near the coast of Africa from Guinea to Sierra Leone and E of the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 68W from 23N southward, moving W near 20 kt. This wave is interacting with an upper-level low E of the SE Bahamas at 21N70W generating scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 20N to 26N between 64W and 70W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 82W from 22N southward, moving W near 20 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are noted across southern Cuba near the wave in addition to enhanced convection near the monsoon trough, S of 13N between 79W to 83W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean at the Guinea-Bissau coast near 12N16W to 09N29W to 08N41W. The ITCZ continues from 08N41W to 07N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 03N to 08N and between 24W-36W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near the ITCZ from 03N to 08N between 42W and 55W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A surface trough extends into the eastern Gulf from the Florida coast near 26N82W to 26N86W. Scattered moderate convection is near this trough from the Florida Keys north to the Big Bend and E of 86W. Another area of scattered moderate convection is in the north-central Gulf, N of 28N between 87W to 91W. Elsewhere, a 1017 mb high pressure is analyzed near 27N93W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted across the basin with locally fresh winds likely near the northwest Yucatan coast. Seas range between 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure of 1017 mb located over the NW Gulf dominates most of the basin while a trough is over the NE Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the trough persist there tonight. The high pressure will meander and weaken through Mon as a low pressure currently located about 175 nm east of Daytona Beach, Florida meanders offshore of the Florida Peninsula, then moves westward across north central Florida Sun night and Mon and into the NE Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for more information on convection across the Caribbean Basin.

Numerous strong thunderstorms are noted across the SW Caribbean Between 72W to 82W, associated to the tropical waves interacting With the Pacific monsoon trough. A surface low is analyzed near the coast of Panama near 09N80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the Greater Antilles which are moving into adjacent waters. Latest ASCT indicates gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean with locally fresh winds N of Colombia. Seas range 3 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge N of the Caribbean will weaken through early next week as the high shifts slowly NE and low pressure persists offshore of the Florida coast. This will lead to a diminished tradewinds across the basin through at least Wed. Look for scattered showers and tstms across the extreme NE Caribbean tonight associated with a fast moving tropical wave.

Atlantic Ocean

See the Special Features section for more information on the low east of Florida and the Tropical Waves section for information on the wave off the African coast.

High pressure centered near 37N38W extends west southwest to 27N63W. A surface trough is analyzed south of the high from 20N44W to 28N49W. Scattered showers are possible in the vicinity of the trough axis. West of 65W, a cold front extends southwest to near 31N72W, moving southeast enhancing scattered moderate convection north of 29N between 62W to 72W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted across the SW N Atlantic with seas 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas to 5 ft are noted.

For the forecast W of 45W, a 1012 mb low pressure is currently located about 160 nm east of Cape Canaveral, Florida. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for additional development, but a tropical depression could still form over the next day or so while the low drifts westward towards the Florida Peninsula. Scattered squalls and tstms associated with a fast moving tropical wave along 70W will move across the SE waters and north of the Greater Antilles through tonight. Winds will veer SE to the west of 60W through Mon as the Atlantic ridge shifts NE and weakens.

In the eastern Atlantic, tranquil conditions prevail under surface ridging anchored by a 1028 mb high near 36N38W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted with seas 5 to 7 ft.

Posted 28 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Torres

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature