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Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system is centered between the Madeira Islands and the Azores. This system has become less organized during the past 24 hours, and environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development as the system moves southwestward during the next day or two. Although subtropical development is now unlikely, this system will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands and the Azores through Wednesday. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.

This will be the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued on this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on June 1, 2021, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, 10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW.

Posted 5 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over W Africa will support fresh to strong N to NE winds north of 20N and within about 150 NM of the coast of W Africa off Agadir, Morocco. Meteo-France has continued a Gale Warning for Agadir through 13/12Z. The forecast calls for N winds of strong to near gale, locally gale close to the coast with rough to very rough seas. Refer to the High Seas Forecast at their website: marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The ITCZ extends from 02N41W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. There is not oceanic monsoon trough today. A surface trough extends from 03N24W to 06N20W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 03N to 06N between 20W and 30W as well as from 00N to 03N west of 37W.

Gulf Of Mexico

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from the coast of Louisiana near 29N91W to the coast of NE Mexico near 24N98W. Pre-frontal troughs are present from the Florida panhandle near 30N86W to 29N88W as well as 25N94W to 21N97W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 23N to 25N west of 94W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 25N to 28N between 88W and 92W. Winds across most of the Gulf ahead of the front are SE light to moderate, except for fresh SE winds in the SW Gulf. Winds north of the cold front are NE gentle to moderate. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the central and W Gulf, and only 2 to 3 ft in the E Gulf. Smoke and haze from agricultural and wild fires in Mexico and Central America are reducing visibilities slightly over the SW Gulf of Mexico, though this may mix out with the shower and thunderstorm activity in the area.

The cold front will push southward in the western Gulf later today, then gradually stall and weaken across the southern Gulf through Fri. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are expected across the basin Fri through Sun.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient from a high pressure ridge along 28N to a 1009 mb low over Colombia is contributing to strong NE to E trades over the S central Caribbean and fresh to moderate to fresh E trades elsewhere. Scattered showers are present in the SW Caribbean south of 12N in association with the NE Pacific monsoon trough that extends across Costa Rica and Panama to coastal Colombia near 10N76W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft over S central Caribbean and 4 to 8 ft elsewhere.

High pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean into Sat. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight.


See the Special Features section for more information on a Gale Warning near Agadir.

Surface ridging extends from a 1028 mb Bermuda/Azores High at 35N28W west-southwestward to 28N80W. E to NE trades south of the ridge are only light to moderate. No significant deep convection is noted away from the ITCZ, though scattered showers are present from 20N to 27N between 32W to 42W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across the tropical N Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast tonight, reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by early Fri, from 31N65W to the Straits of Florida by early Sat, before stalling north of Hispaniola through Sun.

For the forecast east of 55W, little change to winds or seas are expected through Fri night. Beginning Sat morning, a cold front will move across the waters north of 27N and reach 52W by Sun night. Winds on both sides of the front will be fresh to strong and seas reaching 8 ft. Elsewhere a reduced pressure gradient will weaken the trades across the Atlantic on Sat and Sun.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Landsea

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature