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For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

Posted 2 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Cangialosi

Special Features

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force northerly winds have been occurring off the coast of Morocco tonight in the marine zone Agadir and in the northeast portion of the marine zone Tarfaya, mainly from 29N to 31N, between the coast of Africa and 11.5W. Seas in this area are currently 16 to 18 ft. Meteo-France is forecasting winds to diminish to below gale force after 25/0300 UTC tonight. Seas will then gradually subside to below 12 ft by early Mon morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The Monsoon Trough extends from near 05N10W to 00N20W to 02N33W. The ITCZ extends from 02N33W to 01N46W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are depicted along both the Monsoon Trough and the ITCZ.

Gulf Of Mexico

A cold front extends from the Yucatan Peninsula to the Bay of Campeche. A 1021 mb high pressure is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico, in the wake of the front. Moderate to fresh W winds are present in the NE Gulf, N of 29N and E of 87.5W. In the SE Gulf and Straits of Florida, moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds and seas 4 to 5 ft are present. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker, with seas 2 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, a cold front has moved SE of the basin this evening. A 1021 mb high pressure now resides across the NW Gulf, and will produce moderate NW to N winds to the E of 88W tonight before winds diminish. The high will slide E across the northern Gulf through Sun night and then into the Atlc Mon. Fresh southerly return flow will develop over the western Gulf Sun night through Mon night, then expand into eastern portions Tue through Wed, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Wed evening, then reach from the Florida Big Bend region to near Tampico, Mexico by Thu morning.

Caribbean Sea

A cold front extends from west-central Cuba near 22N81W to Cozumel, Mexico. Cloudiness and isolated showers are possible along the front from the Isle of Youth eastward. Moderate N winds are occurring across the Yucatan Channel. Mostly gentle northerly winds are occurring south of 20N and west of 77W. A trade wind regime is found east of 77W. Trades are gentle to moderate in the SW and central Caribbean, increasing to moderate to locally fresh closer to the coast of South America. The highest seas in the basin are 6 ft off the coast of Colombia, with generally 4 to 5 ft seas elsewhere south of 17N and east of 79W. South of 16N and west of 78W, seas are 2-4 ft. Seas are 1-3 ft elsewhere. Cloudiness with possible isolated showers are found extending from near the Windward Passage to eastern Jamaica to near 14N78W. Another smaller patch of cloudiness with possible embedded isolated showers is located to the south of the Mona Passage.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds will continue across the Caribbean waters within 90 nm of Colombia through early next week, strongest at nights. A cold front has entered the far NW Caribbean this evening, and will reach from the Windward Passage to E of the Gulf of Honduras Sun morning, then sink SE and extend from the N coast of Hispaniola to Jamaica by Mon. High pressure will strengthen across the western Atlantic Mon through Wed night and produce fresh to strong trade winds across central portions of the basin and through the Atlantic Passages. By Wed night, gales could develop offshore Colombia.

Atlantic Ocean

See the Special Features section above for details on the east Atlantic Gale Warning offshore Morocco.

A cold front extends from 31N65W to the N coast of Cuba near 23N78W. Scattered moderate showers are within 100 nm of the front N of 28N and east of 63W, with isolated/lighter showers farther SW along the front. Strong SW winds and 10 to 14 ft seas are occurring along and within 180 nm E of the front, mainly N of 26.5N. Fresh SW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are E of the front from 25N to 26.5N. To the west of the front, an area of strong to near-gale force WNW winds and 8 to 12 ft seas exists north of 28N and east of 72W. Elsewhere west of the front, fresh WNW to NW winds prevail. Seas are exceeding 8 ft north of 25.5N between 65W and 79W, with peak seas of 14 ft near 31N66W.

The remainder of the basin is dominated by a 1032 mb high pressure centered S of the Azores near 33N28W. A surface ridge extends SW from the high pressure to 25N59W. Winds are moderate or weaker with seas 6 to 7 ft within several hundred miles of the surface ridge. Fresh NE to ENE trades are generally to the east and inside a partial contour extending from 31N15W to 24N36W to 13.5N46W to the west Coast of Africa. However, NNE to NE winds are strong N of 18N and east of 23W. West of 40W across this fresh wind area, seas are 7 to 9 ft. Seas are generally 9 to 13 ft between 36W and the Canary Islands. Between the Canary Islands and the coast of Morocco, strong to gale force N to NNE winds and 12-18 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from just E of Bermuda, southwestward through the central Bahamas, and through W central Cuba. Strong SW winds will prevail within 210 E of the cold front N of 26N tonight. Behind the front and N of 27N, strong NW winds to near gale-force will prevail. Rough to very rough seas in westerly swell will follow the front, with seas to 8 ft reaching as far S as 24N Sun. The front will reach from 31N60W to NE Cuba Sun afternoon then gradually stall and weaken from 27N55W to the NE coast of Dominican Republic Tue. Farther E, a trough extends from 24N55W to the Leeward Islands, and will drift westward across the northern Leeward Islands through Sun night.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Krv