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U.S.

Updates


Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Beta, located over the far western Gulf of Mexico near the Texas coast, and on Hurricane Teddy, located a couple of hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette located about 250 miles south of the easternmost Azores are showing some signs of organization. Only a slight increase in organization could result in the formation of a subtropical or tropical cyclone tonight or early Tuesday while the system moves eastward at 10 to 15 mph. By late Tuesday or Tuesday night, the system is forecast to move into less favorable environmental conditions, and further development is not expected. For more information about marine hazards associated with this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, high, 80 percent.

An area of showers and thunderstorms located over the Central Bahamas, the Florida Keys and the Straits of Florida is associated with a frontal system. This disturbance is forecast to continue moving southward over central and western Cuba during the next couple of days, and then move back northward on Thursday through Saturday. Marginally conducive environmental conditions are expected when the system approaches the Florida Keys and South Florida late this week, and development, if any, should be slow to occur. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Florida Keys tonight, and over western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, 10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and are available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2

Posted 1 hour, 33 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Brown

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

Tropical Storm Beta is centered near 28.2N 96.1W at 21/2100 UTC or about 20 nm SE of Port Oconnor, Texas, moving NW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained winds speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection in bands are N of 26N between 93W and 97W. The center of Beta will continue to move toward the central coast of Texas today and will likely move inland by tonight. Beta is forecast to remain near or just offshore the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday. Little change in strength is forecast before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

Hurricane Teddy near 33.2N 62.0W at 21/1500 UTC or 150 nm ENE of Bermuda moving N at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Numerous moderate convection is from 32N-40N between 57W-65W. Teddy should turn to the north-northeast and move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday then over the Gulf of St. Lawrence late Wednesday into Thursday. Teddy is expected to gain strength overnight, but weaken steadily by Wednesday and become a strong post-tropical cyclone before reaching Nova Scotia. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette located about 215 nmi south of the easternmost Azores are showing some signs of organization. Only a slight increase in organization could result in the formation of a subtropical or tropical cyclone tonight or early Tuesday while the system moves eastward at 8 to 13 kt. By late Tuesday or Tuesday night, the system is forecast to move into less favorable environmental conditions, and further development is not expected. This system has a high chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. For more information about marine hazards associated with this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.

WEST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: As of 21/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from 27N65W to the Florida Keys near 23N80W. Behind the front, a wide area of strong N and NE winds exist, with gales ongoing N of 30N west of the front to 71W. These gales should subside slightly tonight, but strong winds and rough seas, with wave heights of up to 20 ft, will prevail into tonight. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 20N with axis near 27W, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is occurring with this wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 17N17W to 17N23W to 13N31W. The ITCZ is from 13N31W to 14N43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-21N between 36W and 46W.

Gulf Of Mexico

Tropical Storm Beta near 28.2N 96.1W 999 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NW at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Beta will move inland to 28.5N 96.6W Tue morning, to 28.7N 96.5W Tue afternoon, 28.9N 95.8W Wed morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 29.2N 94.7W Wed afternoon, 29.7N 93.3W Thu morning, and to 30.8N 91.6W Thu afternoon. Beta will move to 34.1N 88.7W Fri afternoon. High pressure building over the eastern half of the Gulf in the wake of a cold front is producing fresh to strong easterly winds. These winds will persist through Tue.

Please see the Special Features section above for further details on Tropical Storm Beta in the NW Gulf of Mexico.

Caribbean Sea

Mainly fair weather conditions prevail across the basin under the influence of two middle level highs supporting dry air subsidence. Scattered showers are in the SW basin associated with the E Pacific monsoon trough. Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate winds are across the region due to a weak pressure gradient.

Swell associated with tropical cyclone Teddy as well as generated by a cold front currently extending along 24N W of 65W will impact much of the Atlantic passages beginning on Wed. Mainly gentle to moderate trade winds will dominate the basin through Thu.

Atlantic Ocean

Hurricane Teddy is N of area near 33.2N 62.0W 958 mb at 5 PM EDT moving N at 20 kt. Maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Teddy will move to 36.5N 62.5W Tue morning, 39.5N 63.7W Tue afternoon, 42.2N 63.2W Wed morning, weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 46.5N 61.5W Wed afternoon, 50.5N 58.0W Thu morning, and 54.5N 53.5W Thu afternoon. Teddy will dissipate Fri afternoon. A strong high pressure, in the wake of a cold front currently extending along 24N W of 65W is producing fresh to strong N to NE across the N waters. These winds will persist through Tue. Long period swell generated by both tropical cyclone Teddy and this cold front will impact the waters into late week.

Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Teddy and the Gale Warning in effect for the west Atlantic.

Posted 1 day, 1 hour ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature