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Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A strong and large non-tropical low pressure system over the far eastern Atlantic is expected to continue moving southward during the next day or so. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little better organized this morning, and the low could acquire subtropical characteristics in a couple of days while it meanders just to the north of the Canary Islands. By the middle of the week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. Regardless of development, this system could cause strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands later today through Monday. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, medium, 40 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven

Tropics Watch Satellite

, SPECIAL FEATURES

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front has moved off the Texas coast this morning. This front will move SE across the Gulf of Mexico, reaching the SW Gulf tonight. Gale-force winds will develop W of the front within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz, Mexico Mon morning, then prevail through Mon night. Seas generated from the gale- force winds will peak near 15 ft Mon afternoon. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 05N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N-11N between 10W-53W.

Gulf Of Mexico

See the Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning over the SW Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from near Tampa Bay at 27N82W to 27N87W, then becomes stationary to a 1012 mb low near Corpus Christi, Texas at 27N96W. A cold front then extends SW from this low to NE Mexico near 23N99W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is located north and west of these frontal boundaries.

Fresh winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail north of the front. Light to gentle winds are over the far eastern Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 1-2 ft over the NE Gulf, and 2-3 ft elsewhere.

As the low moves NE into Louisiana later today, the front will accelerate eastward behind it into the western Gulf. By tonight, the cold front will stretch from near Mobile Bay to the western Bay of Campeche. The cold front will move SE of the region by Mon night. Strong N winds and building seas will follow the front, with gales developing Mon in the extreme SW Gulf. Winds diminish and seas subside Tue. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward Tue night through Wed night allowing for fresh E to SE wind to set up across the area. Another cold front will move into the NW Gulf late Wed and reach from near Mobile Bay to the central Gulf and central Bay of Campeche by late Thu. Fresh to strong N wind and building seas will follow in behind this front.

Caribbean Sea

Scattered moderate convection remains over the SW Caribbean S of 11N. Fresh winds prevail over the central Caribbean, with moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range over the central Caribbean, with 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere.

Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of the basin through the mid-week, except for strong NE winds pulsing near the coast of Colombia through Mon. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean Mon night, extend from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Tue evening, become stationary Wed night, and dissipate Thu. The front will be followed by fresh to locally strong NW winds and building seas Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front.

Atlantic Ocean

In the western Atlantic, a cold front stretches from near Bermuda to the central Florida coast. Scattered showers are within 120 nm N of the front. S of the front W of 65W, light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft prevail. N of the front, moderate ENE winds are ongoing.

In the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 31N54W to 21N57W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is N of 22N between 44W- 54W. Fresh to strong winds prevail north of 26N, east of the trough to near 44W. Seas over this area are in the 8-11 ft range. Gentle to moderate W winds and seas of 5-6 ft prevail west of the trough to near 65W.

Farther east, a cold front is over the Canary Islands from 31N11W to 26N20W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Fresh to strong winds are noted N of the front. Over the trade wind zone south of 20N, moderate to fresh trade winds prevail with seas in the 6-9 ft range.

A weak cold front along 29N will stall this morning then move N as a warm front tonight. In the wake of this front, strong S winds will develop Mon morning, as another cold front approaches from the NW. This front will move off the SE U.S. Coast Mon, then cross the NW waters Mon night, and reach from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas to eastern Cuba Tue evening. The front will gradually weaken and stall by Wed evening. Fresh to strong NW winds and building seas will follow in behind the front, mainly N of 26N and W of 71W. Winds diminish Tue night, with the highest seas shifting to NE of the Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift E through Thu night.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature