Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 30W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are present from 07N to 12N and between 28W and 36W.

A tropical wave has been repositioned along 61W, south of 17N, based on surface observations, satellite and wave guidance data. The wave is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted south of 14N and between 58W and 64W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are seen near the northern portion of the wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and dives southwestward to a 1012 mb low pres near 14N27W and then to 10N45W. The ITCZ extends from 10N45W to 09N58W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 12N between east of 20W.

Gulf Of America

The western portion of the subtropical ridge extends across the Florida Straits into the Gulf waters and along with a frontal boundary to the north, sustain moderate to fresh westerly winds and moderate seas north of 27N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. The aforementioned frontal boundary and an upper-level trough over the eastern United States maintain unstable conditions across the area, producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northern half of the Gulf. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that stronger winds are occurring near the stronger convection.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf, promoting gentle to moderate winds into the upcoming week. The exceptions will be fresh NE to E winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly through the period, as well as the far northern Gulf, where an inland cold front will induce moderate to fresh W to SW winds through Mon. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected over the eastern Gulf, and over the central Gulf N of 25N between 87W and 90W into the upcoming week as an upper-level trough and a cold front approach the Gulf coast.

Caribbean Sea

Divergence aloft supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northern Caribbean waters, especially near Puerto Rico, eastern Hispaniola and south of eastern Cuba. A few showers are also seen in the SW Caribbean. The westward- building subtropical high pressure system positioned over the central Atlantic forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas over much of the central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, an enhanced pressure gradient across the Caribbean will favor fresh to strong trades over the central basin through much of the week ahead. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night Mon through Thu. A tropical wave, near 79W is accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms between Jamaica and eastern Cuba and near the Windward Passage. The wave will continue quickly moving westward across the remainder of the basin through Mon night.

Atlantic Ocean

Favorable upper-level conditions and abundant tropical moisture combine to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the SW North Atlantic, west of 60W. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1028 mb high pressure system centered near 33N55W, supporting fresh to locally strong southerly winds and seas of 4-7 ft north of 28N and west of 75W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across much of the remaining tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge extending from the central Atlantic to South Florida will change little through Tue, then lift N to central Florida on Wed and N of 31N on Thu. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a frontal boundary just NW of the forecast waters will continue to support fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front, along with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the majority of the area into the upcoming week. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night through the period.

Posted 1 hour, 47 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado