Caribbean Sea Gale Warning
The combination of high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic and relatively low pressure over northern South America is expected to produce strong winds near the coast of Colombia during the next couple of days. The winds are expected to be strongest and reach gale force at night with sea heights forecast to peak as high as 19 ft wed. Low pres developing off the southeast coast of the United States will weaken the ridge over the western Atlantic enough to allow the gales to abate by fri night. Please read the latest high seas forecast, under awips/wmo headers miahsfat2/fznt02 kNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 12W to 20W. The ITCZ continues from 20W to 32W to the coast of Brazil near 47W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present within 150 nm either side of a line from 24W to 46W.
Gulf of Mexico
Fair and mild weather conditions prevail across the entire Gulf of Mexico today supported by deep-layer ridging and subsidence overhead. The only notable hazard today is areas of dense fog within 30 nm of the coast from Pensacola Florida westward. The fog is expected to mix out by wed afternoon as a cold front moves into the northern Gulf. Surface winds are generally light to moderate from the southeast, strongest over bay of Campeche. Seas are generally in the 3 to 5 ft range, except for the northeast waters where seas are running 1 to 3 ft.
Wind and sea conditions are expected to deteriorate as a cold front enters the northwest Gulf tonight, then slowly sinks southward through wed night. A reinforcing cold front will then help push the front quickly across the remainder of the Gulf thu through fri. Gale force conditions are possible west of the reinforcing front offshore of tampico, Mexico early fri morning, and Veracruz, Mexico later in the day fri and fri night. Elsewhere, expect strengthening northeast winds and building seas across the region following the second cold front. Winds and seas over the basin will abate as a high pres ridge builds south over the Gulf in the wake of the fronts.
A gale warning is currently in effect for portions of the south- central Caribbean Sea. For details on this hazard, see the warning section above. Otherwise, moderate to strong trade-wind flow continues across much of the region today. Visible satellite images show patches of low-level clouds and isolated shallow showers moving within the trade wind flow across the bulk of the area. However, the showers are expected to be light and short- lived as abundant dry air lies in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Seas are quite high near the coast of Colombia, up to 18 ft as of earlier today, with sea conditions notably less hazardous over the northwest Caribbean Sea.
High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean through thu night, pulsing to gale force off the coast of Colombia each night. High pressure will begin to weaken north of the area thu night, helping to diminish winds fri and sat.
Surface high pressure ridges WSW from a 1038 mb high centered just east of the Azores near 20W to the east cast of Florida. Subsidence and dry air aloft dominate the subtropical and tropical Atlantic basin this evening, resulting in fair weather across the majority of the area. The only exception is over the central Atlantic, where an upper-level trough extending ssw from 58W to 64W is supporting patchy cloudiness and isolated showers north of 18N between 52W and 62W. Seas are highest over the central and eastern Atlantic in long period north swell.
The high pressure extending WSW from the Azores High will shift eastward ahead of a cold front moving off the southeast U.S. Coast wed. The front will briefly stall wed night and thu as a mid to upper- level trough approaches from the west. The mid to upper-level trough will trigger development of low pres along the front east of Georgia and the carolinas thu night. The developing low will then drag the cold front southeast across the southeast Bahamas and into the central Atlantic by sat night. Gale conditions are possible west of the front across the northern waters thu night and fri, with large north to northeast swell expected to impact the area west of a line from 53W to 76W by fri night.
Posted 1 hour, 38 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Mcelroy