The National Hurricane Center in Miami is monitoring a region of showers and storms over the central Caribbean Sea. As of today, the thunderstorm clusters are slowly organizing and likely will develop into a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Sara over the next two days. As it develops it will move westward through warm waters that will help it strengthen into (hopefully) our last tropical system of the season.
Tracking TWO cold fronts for Houston on the 10-day forecast 🌬️
Through the weekend we will likely see this system continue to organize as it slowly meanders across the western Caribbean Sea.
Why has this fall been so warm in Houston?
Many forecast models have it strengthening into a hurricane before moving into the northern Caribbean Sea. The European Model has what will be Sara entering the gulf next Tuesday, after potentially making a first landfall along the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend.
Where exactly this system goes should it develop still has a lot of uncertainty. It is very possible a front could steer this system well to the east through Central Cuba and south of Florida. It is also possible a front could steer the storm into Florida, which is what the European model is favoring, for a third tropical landfall for the state of Florida this season!
Hurricane Milton ravaged one of the most popular areas for ‘snowbirds’ on Florida’s Gulf Coast
Texas rejects insurance rate increase for coastal homeowners, businesses
Note that the American model favors a weaker storm and one that will likely get caught up more interacting with a strong cold front that will sweep across Houston Tuesday.
soon-to-be
Here in Houston we finally have a big cold front coming in the middle of next week. This cold front will guarantee that any tropical systems will not come here to SE Texas. There is zero threat to Houston with this storm outside of elevated rip current risks and rough Gulf waters.
As for this season as a whole, it has been extremely busy. In a normal season we expect to see 14 named storms, of which 7 become hurricanes and 3 become major hurricanes. So far we have seen 17 named storms, of which 11 have become hurricanes and of those 5 have become major hurricanes. Stay tuned to the Stormtracker 2 weather team for the latest updates on soon-to-be Sara!
