I started writing weather articles for KPRC 2 back in 2009, using a WordPress blog. From the beginning, my goal has always been to explain why the weather happens, not just what’s happening when it comes to our weather.
But this time, I’m writing about something I don’t feel I have a solid grip on. And I want to be honest about that. When weather intersects with government decisions, the conversation often shifts into politics, and that’s when finding clear, reliable information becomes challenging. Still, I’m going to do my best to break this down for you.
Occam’s Razor is the idea that the simplest explanation is usually the right one. But we live in complicated times, and sometimes, things aren’t quite as straightforward as they seem.
So when I heard that the U.S. Department of Defense is planning to discontinue data from one of its satellites—data that plays a critical role in hurricane forecasting—it raised a lot of questions. And it’s something that deserves a closer look.
What is the satellite?
It’s all centered around something called the Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder, or SSMIS. This satellite instrument gives forecasters a view that traditional weather satellites simply can’t provide. Think of it like an MRI or X-ray for a storm.
While most satellites show us what’s happening on the surface or at the top of the clouds, SSMIS can see beneath the cloud layers. It reveals the internal structure of a tropical cyclone, helping us understand its core, and more importantly, whether it’s about to intensify.
This kind of insight is critical when it comes to spotting rapid intensification, which is when a tropical system strengthens into a higher category hurricane much faster than expected. It’s one of the most dangerous and difficult-to-predict tropical weather events.
Below is a slide from a hurricane talk I gave back in 2009. While we were making big strides in predicting where a storm would go (track forecasting), forecasting a storm’s intensity remained stubbornly difficult.
In fact, this graphic below highlights that intensity forecast errors were largely unchanged and frankly, not great for years, going back to 1990.
That’s why tools like the SSMIS are so important.
They help us see inside a storm, giving forecasters a much better shot at knowing how strong it could become. and how fast it might get there. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Defense Department have partnered on this kind of satellite data all the way back to the 1960s.
It’s been a key part of improving hurricane forecasting since 2009. So when news broke that the Department of Defense would discontinue access to this data, it raised some serious concerns in the weather community. Look at the improvement in intensity forecasting since 2009. While day 5 remains an intensity challenge, days 1 through 4 have all seen improvement.
Why is it going away?
The Navy says the reason for cutting off access is “to mitigate a significant cybersecurity risk.” A spokesperson added that “the program no longer meets our information technology modernization requirements.”
That’s a serious concern and not one to dismiss. But it’s also raised eyebrows in the forecasting community. After all, this data is vital to public safety, especially during hurricane season.
NOAA was able to negotiate a short-term extension. The original cutoff was set for June 30, but now the data will continue through July 31. That buys a little time but not much.
Can the cybersecurity concerns be addressed in a way that still allows NOAA access to this critical data? Is there a compromise that protects national security and public safety?
I’m hoping the answer is yes. But as of now, there’s no long-term solution on the table, and the clock is ticking.
What does NOAA say about this?
NOAA’s Communications Director, Kim Doster, responded by saying the military satellite data is just one part of a “robust suite of hurricane forecasting and modeling tools.” She added that “NOAA’s data sources are fully capable of providing a complete suite of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the gold-standard weather forecasting the American people deserve.”
That’s reassuring… to a point. But here’s the thing: SSMIS is special.
Take a look at this satellite comparison of Hurricane Erick in the Pacific from just a couple of weeks ago. The level of detail from the SSMIS instrument is incredible; it shows features inside the storm that other satellites just can’t capture at night.
Without it, forecasters are left relying on instruments like ATMS, which, while useful, don’t offer the same clarity or depth. You don’t have to be a meteorologist to see that this is a big loss.
What happens August 1?
Here’s the honest truth: if nothing changes, we’re taking a big step backward in our ability to forecast hurricane intensity.
I’ve been doing this long enough to remember the big misses, back when we didn’t have the tools or understanding we do today. 15 years ago, rapid intensification was a mystery. We didn’t fully understand the physics behind it, and we didn’t have the satellite data to see what was happening inside these storms.
Back then, if a hurricane was in a favorable environment, the National Hurricane Center would strengthen the storm by one category. But sometimes, the storm would jump two or even three categories beyond that. And we didn’t see it coming.
Those days could return. We honestly won’t know until we’re staring down our first few major storms of the season.
That said, I’m hopeful a deal will be worked out. Why? Because this isn’t a budget issue, if it were, I’d be less optimistic. This is about cybersecurity. And that’s a problem that can be solved. There are ways to protect systems while still allowing NOAA access to this crucial data.
We’ve got 30 days. Let’s see what decisions are made.
And as always, I’ll keep you posted.
