What dictates a hurricane’s strength?
There are many ways to categorize a hurricane. The storm’s central pressure is one way. The height of its storm surge is another. How much rain it drops is another. And, of course, the strength of its wind is another. But what causes a hurricane to strengthen or weaken? The answer is simple enough, but multifaceted.
"Alarming year for extremes": 2021 saw record-high greenhouse gas, ocean heat and sea levels rise, new report finds
"With many communities hit with 1,000-year floods, exceptional drought and historic heat this year, it shows that the climate crisis is not a future threat but something we must address today," one NOAA administrator said.cbsnews.com
The eclipsed Eclipse
Can you remember the fanfare of the August 2017 Full Solar Eclipse that crossed the country from northwest to southeast? Not since June 8, 1918 had such a celestial event occurred in the United States! We had a partial glimpse here in Houston that Monday afternoon of August 21st as you can see from the cover photo above: three meteorologists walk into an eclipse....below is the “path of total darkness”:
Forecasters predict above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Here’s what you need to know
Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, have just released their official hurricane forecast, predicting an above-average 2022 season. This would make it the seventh consecutive hurricane season we’ve seen with higher than normal activity.
Dust can bust a hurricane forecast
The above NOAA pic of the Atlantic Ocean skies full of Saharan dust is from 2006 and you can imagine that any tropical showers and storms would have a zero percent chance of forming in that kind of atmosphere. Those dusty skies are dry for one thing and particulates are falling downward toward Earth, suppressing any upward motion required to get tropical storms to build.
When the tornado warning fails
I’ve written recently about the 1992 Channelview tornado outbreak when, fortunately, not a life was lost. The best we could do then to warn the public was break into live TV. By the time we received a warning from the National Weather Service and typed that warning into a crawl machine and then put it on air a good twenty minutes would pass. But those were the two warning methods for television along with NOAA weather radio. So we’ve come a long way. But not far enough.
A report just released from NASA, NOAA, and other agencies predicts that coastal sea levels will rise a foot by 2050 but we may get there on the Texas coast faster than that! Forecasting a significant increase in coastal flooding to the end of this century and beyond, the report includes interactive tools so that us regular folks can drill down a bit to our own areas to find out just what kind of sea level rises are really predicted. For the Texas coast, there is honestly not much comfort. For instance, Galveston by just the end of this decade, 2030, could see a tidal increase of a full foot, or .32 meters:
Temperatures continue to soar
Let’s face it: talking about an ever warmer world is not very sexy and we hear it so much that we’re getting used to it. That, of course, is the wrong road to take as we’re better off accepting the facts and moving forward toward solutions. Last year soared to #4 in the record books for hottest on record in the United States, but consider this: December was THE hottest December on record and summer was THE hottest on record (Houston barely reached 100° but you’ll recall all those searing days in the Northwest).
No white Christmas for RGV this year
If you’re dreaming of having a white Christmas in the Rio Grande Valley this year, you are out of luck. ACCU Weather on Wednesday released its white Christmas 2021 forecast and states there is a 5% chance that South Texas could see snow on Christmas. The last time the Valley had a white Christmas was on Dec. 24-25, 2004 with 1.5 to 3 inches of the snow recorded throughout the area. Brownsville and Harlingen received 1.5 inches of snow, South Padre Island at 2.5 inches and McAllen received 3.5 inches. ACCU Weather reports La Niña is still in play and it tends to steer storms northward, cutting the southern portion of the U.S. off from moisture.myrgv.com
2021 Hurricane season: Over and Well-forecasted
Granted, we haven’t seen much tropical activity the past couple of months, so the fact that the season is now “over over” surprises no one. If you look at the bell curve of tropical activity, September 10th is the most likely day to have some kind of tropical system in the Atlantic Basin:
Managers of New York Fish Dealer Plead Guilty to Fishing Fraud Conspiracy
On April 20, a federal grand jury indicted Christopher Winkler, Bryan Gosman, Asa Gosman and Bob Gosman Co. Inc. with one count of conspiracy, among other crimes. Bryan and Asa Gosman admitted that this fish was then sold to a now-defunct company, an unindicted co-conspirator, in the New Fulton Fish Market in the Bronx, New York. Both Asa Gosman and Bryan Gosman had an ownership interest in the defunct company. In court documents, Bryan and Asa Gosman admit that the sales of illegal fish (to both companies) totaled at least $240,000 wholesale. Bryan and Asa Gosman stated that part of the conspiracy was to falsify both FVTRs and dealer reports to cover-up the fact that fish were taken in excess of quotas.justice.gov
What to know about February
One of my viewers, Lourdes, wrote me this last Tuesday:Frank, What happened to your prediction of La Nina ruling this winter? You said it would be a dry, warm winter. It’s the warm water that heats the air above it. That hot air rises, condenses and forms clouds which produce rain. AdWe both know that it’s usually a roller coaster around here and it wouldn’t surprise me to see a cold snap or two.
Why ETA will be so devastating
ETA, now a 50-mph tropical storm, continues to move over Nicaragua and Honduras at a slow 7 mph. Eta moving slowly over Central America courtesy NOAAThat slow movement divided into 100 (my rule of thumb for rainfall) equals 14-15 inches. My prayers are with them as Eta takes the next two days to move through that country. However, because 2005 had a couple of unnamed storms, that year’s names did not get to ETA (stopping one short with ZETA). ETA forecasted pathOfficially the season ends Nov. 30, but if 2005 taught us anything it is not to look at the calendar -- that year’s ZETA formed Dec. 28 and degenerated Jan.
Zeta Zooming Offshore The Mid-Atlantic Coast Toward The Western Atlantic
Zeta is moving toward the east-northeast near 55 mph (89 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will emerge over the western Atlantic this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) were recently reported at Ocean City, Maryland. RAINFALL: The last of the heavy rainfall along the track of Zeta will impact the Mid-Atlantic through this evening.
What to know about our upcoming winter
NOAA has released their winter outlook for the United States and the forecast hinges on La Niña, that cooler than normal Pacific water which tends to produce dry, warm weather for us. El Niño on the other hand brings in wetter, cooler winters. Here’s a look at the current sea surface temperature anomalies, and you can see that huge blue I’ve circled below:La Nina is definitely in charge! However, with the continuing dryness into winter, developing drought for the eastern half of our state is forecast:Developing Drought forecast for SE TexasEnjoy our “winter” weekend, especially tonight! FrankEmail me and follow me on Facebook!
Delta adds insult to injury in hurricane-ravaged Louisiana
Marcus Peterson walks past a downed tree in his yard after Hurricane Delta moved through, Saturday, Oct. 10, 2020, in Jennings, La. It then moved over Lake Charles, a city where Hurricane Laura damaged nearly every home and building in late August. While Delta was a weaker storm than Category 4 Laura, it brought significantly more flooding, Lake Charles Mayor Nic Hunter said. Forecasters warned that heavy rain, storm surges and flash floods continued to pose dangers in areas from Texas to Mississippi. They arrived back in Lake Charles last weekend, got a new roof on Monday and had to evacuate again Thursday.
Hurricane Delta inflicts new damage on storm-weary Louisiana
This GOES-16 GeoColor satellite image taken Friday, Oct. 9, 2020, at 10:00 a.m. EDT, and provided by NOAA, shows Hurricane Delta in the Gulf of Mexico. – Ripping tarps from already damaged roofs and scattering debris piled by roadsides, Hurricane Delta inflicted a new round of destruction on Louisiana as it struck communities still reeling after Hurricane Laura took a similar path just six weeks earlier. Delta's reach stretched as far west as Galveston, Texas, about 100 miles (160 kilometers) from where the storm struck Louisiana. Tropical Storm Marco fizzled as it hit the southeast Louisiana tip just three days before Laura struck. “The wind is much worse than what Hurricane Laura brought,” Gove said in a message on Twitter.
Heavy Rainfall Threat With Beta Has Diminished As The Center Has Become Less Determinant In The Pressure And Wind Fields
Location 60 miles NNE of Birmingham Alabama Wind 10 mph Heading NE at 10 mph Pressure 29.83 Coordinates 86.3W, 34.3NDiscussionAt 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta was located near latitude 34.3 North, longitude 86.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) until it becomes indistinguishable within the background wind and pressure field by mid-afternoon Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 10 mph (20 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). Tropics Satellite at 3:39 Friday Night, September 25thWatches and WarningsThere are no watches or warnings in effect.