HOUSTON – It’s never too early to start thinking about hurricane season, at least that’s how I see it.
In fact, I’ve already received a few messages asking for my thoughts on the upcoming season. So, in today’s newsletter, I want to continue a tradition our former Chief Meteorologist Frank Billingsley started years ago.
Frank would often share Dale Link’s hurricane forecast, one of the earliest to come out each year. It’s important to note though, Dale isn’t a meteorologist; he’s an engineer who developed a system that, over the years, has proven to be fairly accurate.
For more than two decades, Dale has issued a broad hurricane forecast, not predicting how many storms we’ll see, but identifying where those storms have a chance of making landfall. In other words, it’s an early heads-up, that he releases in January or February, breaking down potential storm impacts into different zones.
Here’s what his forecast looks like for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
- No impacts for Houston this year. (I know that’s a relief for you!) Link’s forecast does not have a hit in the Gulf of Mexico!
- Zone 1 covers Charleston, SC, to about 70 miles east of Cape Hatteras, NC.
- Zone 2 includes all of Puerto Rico.
Dale currently holds a 76% accuracy rate from 2000 to 2024. As with all forecasts, some years are better than others.
Below are last year’s storm tracks alongside Dale Link’s forecast. This was his most inaccurate forecast to date.
When I spoke with him on the phone, Dale admitted how embarrassed he was by how far off his predictions were. The 2024 season alone dropped Dale’s accuracy rating from 81% in 2023 to 76% when you include 2024.
To put that into perspective, from 2000 to 2023, Link missed a total of seven storms. Last year alone, he missed four. In 2023, there was only one miss globally!
That said, Dale did correctly forecast Hurricane Beryl, which is no small feat and something he can take pride in. For those focused on Southeast Texas, his forecast held up well. However, he missed every Mexico impact and the rest of the Gulf Coast. If the Florida Circle was on the west side, it would have been a solid year for him. But it wasn’t, and Link acknowledged that the last hurricane season was simply crazy.
And of course, this is nothing against Dale, because even the best forecasters have off years.
How Dale Link makes his hurricane forecasts:
Dale’s forecasting technique is straightforward: he analyzes all tropical disturbances, depressions, storms, and hurricane tracks from the past one to two years, carefully observing their paths from start to finish. Much like trains on tracks, these patterns tend to repeat in the foreseeable future. You can explore Dale’s webpage to see his past forecasts and learn more about his methodology.
Coming up Friday:
Do you remember last year’s prediction of a “Monster Hurricane Season?” In hindsight, would you call it a monster? It raises an important question: “Is a hurricane season defined by the number of storms or by its overall impact?”
The phrase “monster season” came from Joe Bastardi at WeatherBELL, and I’ll be sharing his early forecast for this year in Friday’s newsletter.
If you’re reading this and haven’t signed up for Anthony’s Weather Lab yet, you can do so below. I’d love to have you on board! Have a great day!
