I don’t want to get too technical about the forecast but I wanted to share with you my thoughts about next week. There is something magical about snow. I think it’s because it’s so rare for us in Houston to get it.
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On average, it snows once every four years but it sure feels like it doesn’t happen this much. I visited Jan Schiff Elementary in Missouri City earlier this week and when I talked about the possibility of getting snow, the kids went wild! And the teachers cheered even louder for a chance of getting a snow day. The below picture shows the explaining the difference between snow and freezing rain. In case you can’t, tell this is me slipping on freezing rain.
Before I get to the forecast:
Let’s talk about how we forecast winter weather, it’s a process.
This past weekend, I started getting texts asking, “Is it going to snow?” I get it, the long-range data you can find online is tempting to buy into, but here’s the thing: it’s often way off. If I had a nickel for every time the 10-day American model predicted a hurricane hitting Houston, I’d be rich!
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There’s a careful process we follow when looking at what the future holds. It’s not just about glancing at one model; it’s about analyzing, comparing, and interpreting the data. I’ve put together this video to explain how it all works. Check it out.
The key is the low:
Forecasting winter weather in Southeast Texas is no easy task. The atmosphere has to perform a perfect balancing act to give us snow.
For starters, temperatures need to be below freezing at the surface. Then, we need a low-pressure system to pull moisture from the Gulf and layer it over that cold air. On top of that, the upper atmosphere has to be below freezing too, otherwise, we’re talking sleet or freezing rain, not snow. Shallow cold air just won’t cut it for snow.
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But here’s the exciting part: if you’re hoping for a snow day, Monday into Tuesday morning are the times it would happen. Both the American and European models are showing snow in the forecast! The low is in the perfect spot. The blue in the below image is snow and it’s right over Houston. Snow totals should range from 2″-6″ in Houston!
What can go wrong?
The honest answer is lots of things. We’re four days away and the low may move too close or too far away. If the low is in the wrong place, we’ll get ice or possibly nothing at all. And this is why we’re always watching, always tracking. We’ll adjustments by the time we get to Monday afternoon and I hope you’ll join us on the journey by watching us on KPRC 2, our live stream, and downloading (if you haven’t already) our StormTracker App.
One final note:
I didn’t want to overwhelm you with too many details about next week, but here are two key points to keep in mind:
- The event may begin with sleet on Monday evening. If snow follows, the roads will become dangerously icy and treacherous.
- Houston might experience a hard freeze, with temperatures dropping below 24°F on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
For more details about next week’s forecast, visit click2houston.com/weather. We’ve got you covered.
