Wednesday’s Forecast:
HOUSTON – Today is similar to what we saw Tuesday, but a dry cold front coming through this afternoon will still quickly warm into the mid-80s.
No rain is expected with it but a reinforcing shot of dry Pacific air will have a nice effect for Thursday’s forecast. We’re still running above average today in the low to mid 80s.
Cold Front #1:
Our first front will move through quickly today, but like the fronts we’ve seen this fall, temperatures won’t drop dramatically. The front will pass through this evening, fairly dry but usher in some cool mornings for the next few days.
For savvy holiday shoppers ready to find this year’s hottest gifts, this weekend will be great weather, perfect for the Nutcracker Market!
Big cool down next week:
Next week holds the potential for a more significant cold front, with models suggesting a more pronounced dip in the jet stream. This front will bring cooler temperatures, with highs in the 60s and morning lows beginning in the upper 40s. Get the pots ready, because it’s soup weather!
Tracking The Tropics:
The National Hurricane Center in Miami is monitoring a region of showers and storms over the central Caribbean sea. Right now, the thunderstorm clusters are slowly organizing and likely will develop into a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Sara over the next two days. As it develops it will be moving westward through warm waters that will help it strengthen into (hopefully) our last tropical system of the season.
Through the weekend we will likely see this system continue to organize as it slowly meanders across the western Caribbean Sea.
Many forecast models have it strengthening into a hurricane before moving into the northern Caribbean Sea. The American Model has what will be Sara entering the gulf next Tuesday. This is still a week out, so the path will likely change some.
Where exactly this system goes should it develop still has a lot of uncertainty. It is very possible a front could steer this system well to the east through Central Cuba and south of Florida. It is also possible a front could steer the storm into Florida.
Here in Houston we finally have a big cold front coming in the middle of next week. This cold front will guarantee that any tropical systems will not come here to SE Texas. There is zero threat to Houston with this storm outside of elevated rip current risks and rough Gulf waters.
As for this season as a whole, it has been extremely busy. In a normal season we expect to see 14 named storms, of which 7 become hurricanes and 3 become major hurricanes. So far, we have seen 17 named storms, of which 11 have become hurricanes and of those 5 have become major hurricanes.
10-day Forecast:
You’ll notice that the 10-day forecast remains warm overall. We’ll see a brief cool-down on Thursday and Friday, but for most of the week, highs will stay in the 80s. However, I want to draw your attention to next Wednesday. We could get our first chilly air of the season.
