On Monday night, Rafael strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane. It’s expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night after impacting western Cuba.
Although it’s currently forecasted to remain a Category 1, it could intensify as it approaches Cuba. As we head into the weekend, Rafael begins to veer left. Pausing the graphic here, it appears the storm is headed directly toward southeast Texas.
On Sunday, Rafael makes a sharp right turn, with the forecast now suggesting landfall in Louisiana as a tropical storm. The forecast cone has widened—remember, this cone reflects the average track error over the past decade. In this case, it’s unlikely the storm will shift left. I’ll explain why below.
The reason Houston hasn’t been hit by a tropical system past Oct. 15 is due to cold fronts, and we have another one coming Saturday.
As surface and upper-level winds move in from the northwest, the steering currents push storms eastward. That’s why you’ll see Rafael make a turn to the north this weekend.
The Storm Tracker 2 Team will keep you updated on Rafael and any other developments this hurricane season.
