MIAMI – Forecasting a hurricane isn’t just looking at radar scans and satellite imagery. Not even close.
To achieve the degree of accuracy in current hurricane forecasting, meteorologists rely not only on data from radar and satellites but also on measurements from instruments located worldwide, in the ocean, and at great depths.
Scientists at a specialized laboratory in Miami are transforming hurricane forecasting through advanced technology and ocean monitoring, achieving a 60% improvement in prediction accuracy over the past 15 years.
NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), situated on Virginia Key in Miami’s Biscayne Bay, serves as NOAA’s command center for hurricane research operations, coordinating a complex network of monitoring devices deployed across the globe.
Breakthrough in Storm Prediction
“[The] AOML is kind of a hotbed for hurricane research for NOAA in general,” said Jason Sippel of NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division.
The lab’s work has dramatically improved the ability to predict rapid intensification of storms, a critical advancement in hurricane forecasting.
“Compared to 15 years ago, we’re doing twice as good as we were,” Sippel notes. “That was a dream, and now that dream has been realized.”
The improvements stem from a federal initiative launched 15 years ago.
“We had this program, the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program,” Sippel explained. “That was a big investment of money from our government into deciding we’re going to improve this intensity forecast.”
Sippel focuses on the atmospheric side of the hurricane research.
But an equally important part of their operation is what’s happening in the water.
Ocean Monitoring Revolution
At the heart of these improvements is a fleet of sophisticated underwater vehicles called hurricane gliders.
Matthiew Le Henaff, an oceanographer at AOML, oversees the deployment of these $150,000 devices.
“They go up and down the water column down to about 3,000 feet,” Le Henaff explains.
The gliders measure temperature, salinity, and oxygen levels, transmitting data via satellite each time they surface.
This hurricane season, AOML will deploy four gliders with three backup units.
The data they collect can improve hurricane intensity forecasts by up to 30% in some cases.
“You need, obviously, a good atmospheric model to predict hurricanes, but you also need a good ocean model,” Le Henaff said. “The storms draw their energy from the ocean, so we need to know how the ocean is if we want to do a good forecast.”
It’s Not Just One Tool...
There’s no one-size-fits-all tool used to help curate an accurate hurricane forecast.
The laboratory employs multiple technologies to gather data:
- Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying directly into storms
- Underwater gliders monitoring ocean conditions
- Global drifter buoys tracking currents and temperatures
- Advanced satellite systems
- Uncrewed drone systems for additional data collection
Cost and Efficiency
The operation of these systems requires significant investment.
Hurricane Hunter flights alone cost approximately $100,000 per mission, according to Sippel.
“You want to use that money as effectively as possible so you’re doing the most work you can do with that amount of money,” Sippel said. “You want to improve the forecast as much as you can with that allotment of money.”
Looking Into the Future
NOAA is expanding its capabilities with new aircraft.
“NOAA’s got some new planes in the pipe. One is coming next year, another one in 2028, high altitude jets,” Sippel said.
The agency is also planning to replace its current fleet of Hurricane Hunter aircraft.
The laboratory continues to innovate with uncrewed systems and drones, seeking more efficient ways to gather critical data that could save lives during hurricane season.
