9:30 p.m. update: Storms have really fallen apart as they have tried to make their way into Harris County so Houston will most likely see nothing from this round of storms.
Areas in Montgomery County, like Conroe and The Woodlands, could see some lightning and brief heavy rainfall.
8:30 p.m. update: Storms continue to remain below severe limits, but strong winds, lightning, and small hail is possible with the strongest storms in the line.
I mentioned in the last update this looks like it could be closer or even come into parts of Harris County and that still looks like it could happen, but it remains a toss up as the storms appear to be weakening. It remains to be seen whether they can make it to Harris County before they fall apart.
7 p.m. update: Storms are starting to move closer to the area. So far, most of the storms have remained below severe limits. Gusty winds, lightning, and small hail are currently possible. We will have to watch to see if any strengthening occurs. Areas like Huntsville may have to deal with storms within the next hour or so.
It is possible that storms could end up coming closer to Harris County than first thought. We have been watching the evolution of this system and it now doesn’t appear out of the question that areas closer to Houston could see some rain. We will watch and see what happens.
6 p.m. update: Storms have started to develop further south along the dryline to areas near Round Rock.
While these storms are not severe, they could strengthen as they head off to the east. As with the other storms, large hail will be the primary threat.
It is possible these storms could impact areas as close as Conroe, but it still looks like Houston and Harris County will miss out on the storms.
Stay tuned in case anything changes.
Houston will most likely stay high and dry Wednesday, but to our north, there is a chance for a few storms that could be severe Wednesday evening.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until 11 p.m. The watch covers a few of our northern counties, such as Grimes, Walker, Polk, and San Jacinto counties.
As of 4:15 p.m., a few thunderstorms are forming along a dryline just south of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. These storms could continue to strengthen as they head off to the east, impacting parts of East Texas this evening.
There is a chance storms could fire further south along the dryline and impact cities such as Huntsville and Livingston.
If storms were to fire further south and were able to become severe, they would be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. The environment is supportive of the potential for hail to reach up to the size of tennis balls, or 2.5 inches in diameter.
The tornado threat is low today as low-level wind shear is not super strong. However, it can’t be completely ruled out.
The time frame where storms would be most likely to impact the area would be after 7 p.m.