This is when ERCOT predicts we could see rolling blackouts

HOUSTON – The Electric Reliability Council of Texas has released a forecast for January, and it explains when the power grid has the highest chances of requiring conservations, and even rolling blackouts.

The forecast uses the winter freeze of 2022 as a scenario. According to Dr. Daniel Cohan of Rice University, he agrees next Monday and Tuesday, Texas could experience similar weather conditions and demands on the power grid as we experienced during a nationwide winter storm in December 2022. That’s when an extremely cold air mass shifted over Texas on Dec. 22, 2022, causing temperatures to plummet across the state. Much of Texas endured temperatures below freezing - in some cases well below freezing - for dozens of hours.

If next week is similar to December 2022 conditions, here is when ERCOT predicts the grid will require controlled outages.

ERCOT releases forecast for January 2024 and how the grid will handle a storm scenario based upon the winter freeze from 2022. (ERCOT)

The table provides hour-by-hour probabilities that Capacity Available for Operating Reserves will be at a level indicative of (1) normal system conditions, (2) a high risk of an Energy Emergency Alert (EEA), and (3) a high risk that ERCOT may need to order controlled outages.

It shows Tuesday at 8 a.m., there’s a 16.77% chance of ERCOT - the highest probability during the upcoming winter weather window.

This information was published in ERCOT’s monthly MORA (Monthly Outlook for Resource Adequacy) report. ERCOT began releasing these forecasts for the first time in December 2023.

The MORA report is released two months before each reporting month and is accessible from the Resource Adequacy page of


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