Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 10N15W to 06N25W to 09N55W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 20W and 30W.

Gulf Of America

1018 mb high pressure centered over Atlantic waters off northeast Florida provides for light to gentle E winds and 1-3 ft seas across the basin, except in the Yucatan Channel where seas are 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will dominate the basin as high pressure moves from Florida toward the SE Gulf on Sun. The ridge will slide a bit east for the start of next week, allowing southeasterly winds to become more dominate, reaching fresh to strong speeds across the western Gulf by the middle of next week. Moderate to rough seas are expected with these winds.

Caribbean Sea

A few showers and thunderstorms are along the monsoon trough over the far southwest Caribbean, mainly off Panama. Fresh winds are reported by scatterometer satellite in the lee of Cuba, with 3-5 ft seas. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades and 3-5 ft seas prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, a surface trough will meander offshore Honduras and Nicaragua through Sun, helping to induce some shower and thunderstorm activity. Fresh NE to E winds S of Cuba and offshore Colombia will diminish by tonight as a weak pressure gradient takes hold over the basin. This will result in an extended period of mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin for the first half of next week. Long period NE swell will propagate across the NE Caribbean, and waters E of the Lesser Antilles Sun into Mon.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N50W to the southern Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along the front north of 24N. Earlier scatterometer satellite data indicated moderate or weaker winds near the front. Pair of 1011 mb low pressures are centered near 12N45W and 12N38W. The scatterometer indicated moderate or weaker winds near these low pressures. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail across the basin. North of 27N, seas exceed 8 ft due to mixed swells generated north of the area.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will stall by tonight from near 27N55W to north of Hispaniola, where it will gradually dissipate Sun into Mon. Expect fresh to strong SW to W winds and building seas across the waters north of 29N Sun, ahead of a cold front forecast to reach the northern part of the forecast region Mon. The front will likely reach from 31N60W to just N of the NW Bahamas on Tue. Rough seas, in mainly northerly swell, will periodically impact waters N of 28N through early next week.

Posted 1 hour, 12 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen