Tropical Waves

A new tropical wave has emerged into the eastern Atlantic and has been analyzed near 20W, from 17N southward. Isolated moderate convection is depicted along the wave axis.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 37.5W, from 18N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 08N to 14N between 34.5W and 44W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W, from 17.5N southward, moving at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered showers are seen from 09N to 14N between 52W and 59W.

A Caribbean tropical wave has been relocated based on wave diagnostics and satellite imagery. The wave axis is near 74.5W, from 19N southward. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 15.5N to 19N between 72W and 77.5W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17.5N16W and extends southwestward to 12N25W then westward to 10.5N53W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 06N to 11N between 44W and 52W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms across the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

Gulf Of America

A surface trough curves southwestward from 29N89W to 26N95W. Numerous showers are depicted north of 23.5N between 90W and 96W. While, scattered moderate convection is found north of the trough. Scattered moderate convection is depicted over the NE Gulf as afternoon convection drifts NW from the Big Bend of Florida area. A surface trough over the eastern Bay of Campeche is supporting scattered moderate convection over the area. Elsewhere, a 1015 mb high is dominating the southwestern Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft are evident across the NE Gulf. Northeast moderate winds and seas 1 to 2 ft prevail over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, a trough over the north-central Gulf is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Over the next day or so, this system is forecast to move generally westward across the northern Gulf where some slow development is possible. By this weekend, the system is likely to move inland, ending its chances for development. Regardless of development, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected in association with this system across most of the NE and north- central Gulf. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are forecast along the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland daily and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night.

Caribbean Sea

An upper-level trough is supporting scattered moderate convection over the northwestern Caribbean. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between a Bermuda High and a 1010 mb Colombian low is leading to fresh to strong trades in the central basin and along the Windward Passage. Seas 7 to 10 ft prevail across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas 5 to 7 ft prevail over the eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and seas 2 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean through the Sat. Fresh to strong northeast winds in the Windward Passage are expected through Sat. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds will prevail.

Atlantic Ocean

A pre-frontal trough runs from 31N50W to 21N56.5W, while a cold front runs from the north-central Atlantic near 31N52W southwestward to 31N67W. Scattered moderate convection is found along both of these features. For additional convection across the basin please refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections above. Ahead of the front and north of 27N, SW moderate to fresh winds prevail. Behind the front and north of 27N, gentle to moderate NW winds prevail. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in these waters. Otherwise, the Subtropical Ridge is maintaining light to gentle winds and 3 to 4 ft seas north of 23N between 65W and Florida. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 23N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft prevail, except for fresh to strong winds north of the Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. Farther east, moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring off the northwestern coast of Africa, with locally strong winds occurring north of the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the forecast region. N of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, fresh to strong winds and moderate seas are expected through Sat. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow along with mostly moderate seas are expected.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Krv