Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Cabo Verde Islands near 21W from 17N southward, and moving west at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 10N to 17N and east of 20W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 48W from 17N southward, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 41W and 48W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 84W from 20N southward into Honduras. It is moving west around 15 kt. Associated convection is now well inland into Central America.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W then continues to 10N30W and 11N48W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the coast of Guinea- Bissau, Sierra Leon, and Liberia, and south of the trough from 05N to 10N between 26W and 41W.

Gulf Of America

A modest stationary front curves from the Florida Big Bend area to near Corpus Christi, Texas. Scattered thunderstorms are found up to 100 nm along either side of the front. A surface trough extends from near Tampa Bay to a 1012 mb low near 27N85W to 25N87W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring E of the low, offshore the Florida Peninsula. N of the stationary front, moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail, with mainly light and variable winds to the south. Seas are 3 to 5 ft where the NE winds are present, and mostly 2 ft or less to the south.

For the forecast, the front and low pressure will remain generally in place through mid-week. This will bring showers and thunderstorms, especially near the low, to the NE Gulf, early this week. N of the boundary, moderate to locally fresh NE winds and moderate seas are expected, with the remainder of the basin experiencing gentle winds and slight seas.

Caribbean Sea

Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present at the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to ESE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas dominate north- central and eastern basin, and the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, a relatively weak pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and Colombian low will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the central Caribbean, with mainly gentle winds elsewhere. Winds may increase slightly late this week as the gradient tightens. Slight to moderate seas will prevail.

Atlantic Ocean

A deep layer trough and converging low-level southerly winds are leading to numerous moderate to scattered strong convection offshore Florida and north of the Bahamas, eastward to about 76W. East of this area, a mid- and upper-level low is leading to a broad area of numerous moderate to scattered strong convection from 22N to 28N between 62W to 72W. In the central and eastern basin, a weak cold front stretches from 31N16W to 26N31W to 31N45W. Convection along this front has generally diminished this morning. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle S winds and seas less than 3 ft are present W of 72W. To the E, an expansive 1033 mb high at the north- central Atlantic is supporting moderate with locally fresh E winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front will move off NE Florida today then stall over the far NW waters tonight through mid-week. This will keep showers and thunderstorms in place offshore Florida and north of the Bahamas. Elsewhere, the Bermuda ridge will dominate weather through the forecast period, bringing gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.

Posted 23 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik