U.S.
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For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Erin, located several hundred miles east of the northern Leeward Islands.
Southwestern Gulf (AL98): Recent geostationary and microwave satellite imagery indicates that shower and thunderstorm activity is showing some signs of organization with a small area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf. An earlier Air Force reconnaissance mission found that the system lacks a well-defined low-level circulation. The low is forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward across the western Gulf during the next day or so, and environmental conditions appear generally favorable for further development. A tropical depression could form before this system moves inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas by late Friday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the next few days. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Friday morning. * Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, medium, 50 percent.
Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Hagen/Papin
..SPECIAL FEATURES,
Tropical Storm Erin is centered near 16.7N 51.2W at 14/2100 UTC or 690 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving W at 15 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, with this motion expected to continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 NM SW and 60 nm NE semicircles of center. Seas to 4 meters/12 ft or greater extend within 120 nm in the NE quadrant, 30 nm in the SE quadrant, and 60 nm in the NW quadrant of Erin with maximum seas of 6 meters/18 ft. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Erin is expected to become a hurricane on Friday. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Erin this evening. Tropical Storm Erin is expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S. And British Virgin Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. This rainfall may lead to isolated flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides. Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Erin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
Southwestern Gulf (AL98): Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with an area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche. The low is forecast to move west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf during the next day or so, where environmental conditions are marginally conducive for further development. A tropical depression could form before this system moves inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas by late Friday ending its chances for tropical development. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the next few days. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information.
Tropical Waves
A tropical wave is along 30W south of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 10N between 25W and 33W.
A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean. Its axis is along 67W moving westward at around 10 kt. The wave appears to enhance convection over central Venezuela.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N17W and continues southwestward to 15N43W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 10N to 12N between 40W and 46W.
Gulf Of America
A broad area of low pressure (AL98) located over the SW Gulf has the potential of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours before moving inland. An area of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 23N to 25N between 92W and 96W related to this system. Please, see the Special Features section for more details.
The remainder of the Gulf region is under the influence of a weak ridge that is producing mainly light to gentle winds and slight seas, with the exception of fresh to locally strong E to SE winds and moderate seas in the SW Gulf, particularly from 21N to 23N between 91W and 93W. These winds are associated with the aforementioned broad area of low pressure (AL98).
For the forecast, aside from AL98, gentle winds and slight seas are expected through the basin as weak high pressure dominates.
Caribbean Sea
Please, see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Erin.
Satellite derived wind data provide observation of fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between high pressure N of area and the Colombian low. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are associated with these winds. Elsewhere, across the central Caribbean moderate to fresh trades are noted while gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the basin. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the NW Caribbean. Once again, convection has flared-up over the Greater Antilles due to daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain slopes lifting.
For the forecast, Tropical Storm Erin will move to 17.3N 53.5W Fri morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 18.1N 56.6W Fri afternoon, 19.0N 59.5W Sat morning, 19.8N 62.2W Sat afternoon, 20.8N 64.4W Sun morning, and 21.7N 66.1W Sun afternoon. Erin will change little in intensity as it moves to 24.2N 68.9W on Mon afternoon. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail through the weekend with slight to moderate seas.
Atlantic Ocean
Please, see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Erin.
A surface trough extends from just south of Bermuda to near 24N72W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are near the trough axis. Due to the presence of this trough, a weak pressure gradient dominates much of the forecast area, with a 1019 mb high pressure located just E of the NW Bahamas. This weather pattern is leading to moderate or weaker winds and slight seas W of 65W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a ridge, anchored by a 1024 mb high pressure situated near 33N45W. The pressure gradient between this system and T.S. Erin supports an area of fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas N of Erin to about 25N between 40W and 52W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted elsewhere E of 65W, with the exception of fresh to strong N winds between the Canary Islands.
For the forecast, Tropical Storm Erin will move to 17.3N 53.5W Fri morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 18.1N 56.6W Fri afternoon, 19.0N 59.5W Sat morning, 19.8N 62.2W Sat afternoon, 20.8N 64.4W Sun morning, and 21.7N 66.1W Sun afternoon. Erin will change little in intensity as it moves to 24.2N 68.9W on Mon afternoon. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will result in gentle to moderate winds and mainly slight seas into the weekend.
Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Gr
