Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough stays mostly across North Africa. An ITCZ extends westward from near the coast of Sierra Leone to 01N47W. Isolated moderate convection is present near the ITCZ from 05N-08N east of 30W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and western Panama.

Gulf Of America

As of 0900 UTC, a weak cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to 29N92W, where it transitions to a stationary front to S Texas. Prefrontal troughs are noted from 23N96W to 27N95W and 27N92W to 30N86W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 23N and west of 90W. Winds across the Gulf are moderate or weaker with seas 2-4 ft. A surface trough in the SW Gulf is associated with scattered moderate and isolated strong convection south of 20N between 92W-96W.

For the forecast, a cold front will reach the NW Gulf later this morning and steadily sweep across the Gulf. The cold front should extend from near Tampa to Tampico tonight, from the Florida Straits to near Veracruz Thu night, and then exit the Gulf by Fri morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in the wake of the cold front with conditions improving by Fri night. Fresh to strong return flow should set up in the NW Gulf Fri night and Sat. Looking ahead, the next cold front may emerge from the Texas coast Sat night and progress southeastward across the W Gulf on Sun.

Caribbean Sea

A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressures over NW Colombia/SW Caribbean Sea is forcing fresh to strong trades with locally near gale and seas of 8-11 ft across most of the Caribbean. Trades in the E and NW Caribbean are moderate to fresh with seas 4-7 ft. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and western Panama.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient will sustain fresh to strong trades with locally near gale through Fri morning before diminishing on Fri afternoon. Elsewhere, the weather pattern will support moderate to fresh trades through early Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front will slowly enter the NW Caribbean on Fri afternoon, followed by fresh to strong NE winds. The front should stall and wash out over the NW Caribbean on Sat with conditions gradually improving during the remainder of the weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak frontal boundary extends from 28N55W to 28N70W with fresh NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft along the front east of 65W. A prefrontal trough is present from 22N47W to 31N41W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 60 NM of the trough axis. The Bermuda High to the north of the front is helping to sustain fresh to strong ENE winds and 5-7 ft seas in the approach to the Windward Passage. Farther east, NE winds are fresh to strong with seas 6-8 ft within 60 NM of the coast of Morocco. Elsewhere, winds are moderate of weaker with seas 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh NE winds along the front east of 65W will diminish later today, as the front dissipates. The Bermuda High to the north of the front is helping to sustain fresh to strong ENE winds in the approach to the Windward Passage through tonight before diminishing on Thu. Tonight, a new cold front will emerge off of the NE Florida coast, bringing with it fresh to strong N to NE winds behind the front. The cold front should extend from 31N72W to the Florida Straits Thu night, from 31N63W to the central Bahamas by Fri night, and then dissipating from 31N57W to the central Bahamas by Sat night. A tightened pressure gradient in the wake of the front is forecast to bring increasing NE winds across much of the forecast area Sat, gradually diminishing from west to east Sun.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Landsea