Special Features

Meteo-France Gale Warning: A Gale Warning has been issued by Meteo-France for the waters offshore Agadir. Gale force N winds are anticipated along with severe gusts through 24/00z. For more information, please see Meteo-France's website at: wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2

Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 25W from 03N to 17N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 08N to 13N between 24W and 29W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 43W from 04N to 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 06N to 12N between 39W and 46W.

A large tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles with its axis near 58W from 18N southward. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 07N to 16N between 56W and 62W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 16N16.5W and continues southwestward to 11N26W, and then westward to 10.5N37W. The ITCZ then extends from 10.5N37W to 07N54W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is seen along and within 100 nm of both of these features between 31W and 36W, as well as between 46W and 55W.

The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring in the far SW Caribbean generally S of 12N and W of 75W.

Gulf Of America

An approaching cold front at the surface and weak troughing aloft over the Gulf are leading to scattered moderate convection in the north-central Gulf N of 26N between 85W and 92W. In the SE Gulf and Florida Straits, numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring as an upper-level low spins overhead. Away from convection, a weak 1018 mb high is leading to moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and seas of less than 3 ft across much of the basin.

For the forecast, a trough of low pressure near the southeastern U.S. Coast is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Over the next day or two, this system is forecast to move west- southwestward into the north-central portion of the Gulf where some slow development is possible. By this weekend, the system is likely to move inland, ending its chances for development. This system has a low chance for tropical cyclone development. Regardless of development, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected in association with this system across most of the NE and north- central Gulf. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are forecast along the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland daily and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night.

Caribbean Sea

A combination of weak troughing aloft and convergent surface winds are leading to scattered moderate convection occurring over portions of the E Caribbean generally N of 12.5N and E of 70W. In the NW Caribbean, numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring N of 16.5N and W of 75W as an upper-level low spins overhead. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the region and the 1010 mb Colombia Low is leading to fresh to strong trades in the central and SW Caribbean, along with 6-9 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail in the E Caribbean away from convection, while moderate or weaker winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail in the NW Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean through the end of the week. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds and moderate to rough seas in the Windward Passage are expected through the end of the week. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds will prevail.

Atlantic Ocean

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring in convergent surface flow near and to the east of a 1022 mb surface high near 28N55W. To the west, numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring W of 78W, attributed to an upper level low over the region. All other convection in the basin is associated with tropical waves or the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Much of the remaining Atlantic is dominated by ridging stemming from the 1031 mb Azores high. Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6-8 ft occurring in an area from 13N to 20N between 50W and the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are occurring N of 18N and E of 35W, with locally strong NE winds occurring in between the Canary Islands, as well as near the coasts of Morocco, Western Sahara, and Mauritania. Much of the remaining basin is seeing moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the forecast region. N of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, fresh to strong winds and moderate seas are expected through the end of the week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow along with mostly moderate seas are expected. A frontal boundary is forecast to reach the NE waters toward the end of the work-week and dissipate, with little change expected in winds and seas.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Adams