Special Features

Central Atlantic Gales and Significant Swell: A strong cold front extends from 31N56W to 31N58W to 26N70W to 31N78W. Gale force winds prevail behind the front to near 63W through late this morning. However, large NW swell behind the front is causing 12 to 18 ft seas north of 28N between 55W and 69W. Seas are expected to build higher to 12-20 ft and spread to 27N between 53W and 69W today. These seas will gradually subside by this evening.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Africa near 10N14W, and continues to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 07N between 37W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

A surface trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms at the central Bay of Campeche. A 1025 mb high at the northeastern Gulf is dominating the rest of the basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and moderate seas are present at the south-central and southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are over the north-central Gulf. Light to gentle winds with slight seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the high pressure will move into the eastern Gulf through Fri. This pattern will continue to support gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas across the Gulf into Sun. The next cold front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf on Mon, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas, except gale conditions will be possible in the far west central and southwest Gulf by Mon night.

Caribbean Sea

A robust trade-wind regime continues across much of the basin. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas are noted over the south-central basin, lee of Cuba, near the Windward Passage and near Hispaniola. Gentle to fresh NE winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, strong high pressure across the western Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and the central Caribbean through tonight, except through Mon off Colombia. Long period northerly swell moving into the northeastern passages will gradually subside Thu. This will be followed by additional northerly swell arriving into northeastern passages late Fri into Sat before subsiding Sun.

Atlantic Ocean

See the Special Features above for details on the Gale conditions behind a cold front and the ongoing significant swell.

A strong cold front extends from 31N56W southwestward to 26N70W and northwestward toward the Carolina coast. Scattered showers and and isolated thunderstorms are occurring within 60 nm on either side of the front and mainly N of 26N. Large swell is impacting the waters northeast and east of the Bahamas. Over the central Atlantic, a weakening stationary front reaches southwestward from the north- central Atlantic across 31N37W to 27N43W and to 24N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 21N between 38W and 49W.

Outside the area mentioned in the Special Features section, moderate to fresh W to NW winds and rough seas dominate N of 25N between 51W and 75W. Gentle to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Another area of rough seas is noted N of 14N between 33W-64W, while moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the strong cold front will move across the waters east of the Bahamas through this morning while weakening. Strong winds and a new set of large reinforcing swell will follow this front, covering the waters east of 70W through tonight. Winds to gale force are impacting the waters north of 30N southeast of Bermuda, but should diminish below gale force later today. Another cold front will move over the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda Fri before moving east of the area Sat. It will be followed by additional reinforcing swell east of 70W. The next front will move into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda late Sat into Sun, and move east of the region through Mon. Yet another front will move off the northeast Florida coast Mon night.

Posted 1 hour, 35 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era