Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic near 14N17W and extends southwestward to 19N23W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 04N50W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 200 nm on either side of the features mainly E of 45W.

Gulf Of America

A broad surface ridge is dominating much of the Gulf. A surface trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche along 92W. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and slight seas are present across the entire Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over Florida will maintain gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas into Sat night across the basin. Low pressure over northern Mexico may lead to winds increasing to fresh speeds in the NW Gulf Sun night.

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough over the NW Caribbean extends from south of Isla de la Juventud to the Lower Florida Keys. Scattered moderate convection is depicted along the trough, north of Cuba. To the E, a surface trough is along 66W and N of 14N. Isolated convection is found along the trough. The eastern extension of the Pacific's monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate convection across the SW Caribbean S of 10N between 76W-81W. Moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and moderate seas are noted over the south- central part of the basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight seas prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough over the NW Caribbean will move west toward the Yucatan Channel and dissipate by Wed. With high pressure to the north and the Colombian low to the south, mainly moderate trades will dominate through the weekend, with nightly pulses of locally strong winds possible offshore Colombia.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front over the western Atlantic extends from 31N58W to 27N78W. To the E, a surface trough extends from 30.5N53W to 25N60W. Divergent upper- level winds are supporting numerous moderate convection near the trough N of 25N between 50W and 58W. Isolated showers are found north of Hispaniola in association to another surface trough. Over the central- Atlantic, a stationary front runs southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic across 31N37W to 24N42W. Scattered showers are found up to 50 nm along either side of this feature. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are present across the tropical Atlantic S of 20N, while light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere E of the western Atlantic front. Moderate seas prevail across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front over the western Atlantic will gradually dissipate into Wed night. A weak cold front will move into northern waters Thu night then stall over NE waters Fri, before dissipating. Through late week, gentle breezes will prevail, with mainly slight to moderate seas. Rough seas in N swell N of 29N and E of 65W will decay tonight. Looking ahead, SW winds may increase slightly off northeast Florida late Fri through Sat ahead of a weak cold front moving into the southeast U.S.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Krv