Special Features

Significant Rainfall over Central America: A frontal boundary has stalled from the Turks and Caicos Islands, southwestward across extreme eastern Cuba to the N coast of Honduras. Fresh to near-gale N to NE winds prevail north of the front. This scenario is producing strong and moist onshore flow, particularly into the northern coast of Honduras and NE Nicaragua, leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring in the western Caribbean, generally west of 80W and south of 20N. A middle to upper level ridge will extend into the W Caribbean and Central America by Thursday, weakening the frontal boundary and leading to less precipitation over eastern Honduras. The boundary will then slowly move northward, leading to heavy precipitation over northern Belize and southern Quintana Roo-Mexico from Thursday into Friday morning. Meanwhile, a lower level trough will continue to produce heavy precipitation over Nicaragua and Costa Rica through Friday, with the heaviest rainfall occurring during the afternoon hours on Thursday and Friday. This rainfall is likely to result in life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. This information was provided by the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center.

Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details.

Agadir Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong stationary low in the NE Atlantic and higher pressure over N Africa and N Italy will lead to sustained strong to near-gale force SW winds offshore Agadir overnight. Gusts exceeding gale force can be expected, and Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for this zone from 13/03 UTC through at least 13/18 UTC.

For more information, please refer to Meteo-France's website at: http://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from 16N17W to 08N41W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring S of 18N and E of 40W.

Gulf Of America

A surface ridge extends from 1025 mb high pressure over the northeastern Gulf near 29N86W toward Tampico, Mexico. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to fresh S winds north of ridge along the coast of Texas, and fresh NE winds over the Straits of Florida and Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere. Moderate seas prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh NE winds and moderate seas will continue across the southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits, through late Fri as a moderate pressure gradient prevails between a stalled front in the northwestern Caribbean, and high pressure over the northeastern Gulf. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds are expected over the northwestern basin each afternoon and night through this weekend. Over the remainder of the Gulf, gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas will prevail through the weekend.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on convection associated with the significant rainfall event over the next couple of days across Central America and adjacent waters.

A stationary front extends from extreme eastern Cuba to Puerto Barrios, Guatemala. Recent scatterometer data indicated fresh to near-gale NE winds occurring behind the front and across much of the northwest Caribbean. Fresh to near-gale E winds are also occurring across the central Caribbean, strongest offshore northwest Colombia. Rough seas prevail west of 70W, and moderate seas east of 70W.

For the forecast, no change in weather conditions is expected through Thu. Winds and seas will slowly diminish Thu night into early Fri as the front gradually dissipates, though locally fresh NE winds will continue to pulse in the lee of Cuba and in the far south-central Caribbean into Sat. Heavy rainfall will continue over the southwestern through west- central Caribbean and coastal zones through Fri, from the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula across Central America to Panama. Moderate trade winds and moderate seas are expected over the basin by this weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the Agadir zone.

A cold front extends from near 31N54W to 25N65W, then becomes stationary through the Turks and Caicos Islands and across the Windward Passage. Scattered showers are occurring along the front. The subtropical ridge will extend along 28N/29N west of the front. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted between the front and the ridge south of 27N, with gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere of the front. Rough to very rough seas in NW swell prevail west of the front to 71W, while moderate seas are noted elsewhere west of 71W. Farther east, a 1018 mb low pres is analyzed near 26N45W. A cold front extends from the low to a 1006 mb low pres near 29N16W. No significant convection is noted along these features at this time. Fresh to near-gale NW winds and rough seas are noted north of the front. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere across the Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to locally strong NE winds will continue N of the front to 25N between 68W and Cuba tonight, then locally fresh winds will continue through late Fri night as the fronts slowly dissipate. Large NW swell will produce widespread rough seas to 13 ft with and behind the front, that will propagate into the central Atlantic through Thu night, then move E of 55W on Fri, as seas diminish from NW to SE across the regional waters. Elsewhere, a new cold front moving eastward away from the southeastern U.S. Will lead to moderate to fresh W to NW winds and locally rough seas N of 29N tonight through Thu. The cold front will eventually dive southeastward in the central Atlantic by late week, supporting fresh W to NW winds and rough seas E of 70W by Thu night. A series of cold fronts passing north of the region this weekend will lead to strengthening winds and building seas over the northern waters.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era