Tropical Waves

A tropical wave has its axis near 87W south of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 17N to 21N between between 83W and 87W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of west Africa near 16N17W and continues to near 15N20W to 09N29W. The ITCZ continues from 09N29W to 07W58W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N to 10N between 28W and 43W.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front is analyzed from near the Yucatan Channel to just offshore the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to fresh winds are over the SE Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range across much of the Gulf, except for 2-3 ft over the NW Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are expected over much of the basin, away from the northwestern Gulf, into tonight. Locally fresh E winds will become confined to areas east of 90W tonight into Wed as the front slowly dissipates. For Wed through late week, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are expected over the Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

High pressure is building across the western Atlantic waters in the wake of a cold front. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the eastern extent of the east Pacific monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds over the central and western Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the eastern Caribbean. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the central and western Caribbean, and 2-4 ft over the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds are expected across the central through southwestern Caribbean into early Thu as the pressure gradient prevails between weak high pressure to the north and low pressure in the south-central basin. Locally rough seas in the south-central Caribbean will slowly subside by this evening. Elsewhere, fresh NE winds will occur through the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba this evening into Wed afternoon as high pressure builds to the north of a stalled frontal boundary draped over the northwestern Caribbean. Mainly moderate trade winds and moderate seas are expected over the basin Thu into this weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N58.5W to central Cuba. Fresh to strong winds are N of 29N east of the front to 50W, and N of 30N west of the front to 70W. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-10 ft, prevail elsewhere W of the front. Moderate to fresh winds are found S of 22N, between 28W and 50W. Light to gentle winds generally prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range between 30W and 45W, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will progress eastward through midweek. Fresh to strong SW winds will prevail east of the front, north of 28N, into tonight. Fresh to strong N to NW winds are expected following the front, generally north of 29N into this evening. Widespread moderate to fresh NE winds are expected north of the Greater Antilles through Wed morning as high pressure builds over the eastern U.S. Behind the front. N swell associated with the front will expand southeastward over the next several days, leading to rough seas north of 27N and east of 75W today, and north of 25N and east of 73W on Wed. Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft will be possible in the central Atlantic north of 28N and east of 62W Wed through Thu morning. Rough seas will be reinforced over the waters east of 65W by Fri as a strong strong storm system passes north of the waters.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Al