Special Features

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is centered near 24.3N 58.1W at 20/0900 UTC or 460 nm NE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are peaking to around 22 ft just northeast of the center. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection prevails from 22N-27W between 53W-59W. On the forecast track, the center of Gabrielle is expected to pass east of Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Swells generated by Gabrielle are beginning to reach Bermuda and will build through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for details.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Gabrielle NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 26W, south of 22N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the trough axis S of 14N.

A central Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 40W, south of 21N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the wave axis.

A W Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 79W between Jamaica and Colombia, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W, and continues southwestward to 11N36W. The ITCZ extends from 11N43W to 07N57W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N between 27W and 35W.

Gulf Of America

Relatively weak high pressure is over the basin, between a 1017 mb high center located off the western Florida Panhandle, and a trough over the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. This pattern was supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the Bay of Campeche, along a trough that prevails along 93W.

For the forecast, surface ridging will control the general weather pattern through the weekend before shifting NE and weakening into next week. With Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle over the Atlantic lifting northward through Mon night, Atlantic ridging will build westward along the northern Gulf early next week.

Caribbean Sea

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin.

An upper-level trough continues to extend across the Atlantic from south of Bermuda to the Mona Passage, then across the central Caribbean to eastern Panama. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active between Jamaica, Haiti, and off eastern Cuba, on the northern end of the tropical wave moving through the central Caribbean. A weak pressure gradient in place is promoting generally light to gentle E to SE winds across the basin, with slight seas.

For the forecast, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist between Haiti and Jamaica near a tropical wave. Similar weather is in the NE Caribbean including near the Atlantic Passages due to an induced trough. Gentle to moderate trades along with moderate seas are expected through Sun, increasing slightly thereafter basinwide as the pressure gradient tightens in the wake of TS Gabrielle moving through the central Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds may pulse in the S-central portion of the basin Mon night through at least Wed night.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Gabrielle, and on the tropical waves across the eastern Atlantic.

A surface trough remains anchored along roughly 74W/75W through the central Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active within 60 nm east of the trough, and east of the central Bahamas. Moderate 10 to 15 kt NE winds and moderate seas are noted west of the trough. Gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate ft seas are noted between 65W and the trough. Seas rough or greater associated with T.S. Gabrielle extends from 20N to 31N between 50W and 65W. Elsewhere, the pattern is dominated by 1030 mb high pressure near the Azores, supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds and moderate seas in a mix of swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Gabrielle will move to 25.4N 59.3W this afternoon, 27.0N 60.5W Sun morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 28.6N 61.6W Sun afternoon, 30.3N 62.1W Mon morning, 32.1N 61.3W Mon afternoon, and 34.0N 59.1W Tue morning. Gabrielle will change little in intensity as it moves to 37.0N 50.6W by early Wed. A surface trough will persist off the SE U.S. Coast to the northern Bahamas through at least the weekend enhancing convection in the vicinity. Otherwise, in the wake of Gabrielle, central Atlantic high pressure will build westward generally providing for light to gentle winds over the central and western portions of the area, and for gentle to moderate winds over the eastern portion into midweek.

Posted 1 hour, 59 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era