Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 08N16W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 05N35W, and then runs west-northwestward to the coast of Guyana near 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring E of 31W between 03N and 13N, and also near the coast of Guyana.

Gulf Of America

Satellite imagery shows a fog bank forming along the Gulf coast of Florida from the Big Bend down to near Venice, FL as of 0550 UTC. Mariners should be aware of the potential for reduced visibility within 20-30 nm of the coast in these aforementioned areas. A weak stationary front extends from near Apalachicola, FL across the N Gulf to the TX coast near Port Aransas. Widely scattered showers are seen near and in the vicinity of the front. Otherwise, weak ridging continues to dominate the basin. Recent scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh SE to E winds across much of the Gulf W of 90W, and gentle to moderate E to NE winds E of 90W. Slight seas prevail across the Gulf.

For the forecast, a frontal boundary remains stationary from the Florida Panhandle to Lake Jackson, Texas. The front will lift northeastward as a warm front tonight as low pressure develops over the Southern Plains. Expect fresh southerly flow off the Texas coast tonight through Mon night supported by the gradient between low pressure over northeast Mexico and high pressure off the Carolinas. These winds will diminish Tue ahead of a frontal boundary that will be nearing the Texas coast. A stronger reinforcing cold front will overtake the frontal boundary early Wed, then move into the northwest Gulf. The cold front will then sweep to the southeast of the basin by late Thu, followed by fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas into the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the initial frontal boundary.

Caribbean Sea

A weak upper level trough and convergent surface winds in the NW Caribbean is leading to scattered moderate convection near the coasts of Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua, as well as more isolated convection near the SW coast of Jamaica. In the SW Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough is supporting more scattered moderate convection generally S of 12N and W of 75W. Outside of convection, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the SE US and the Colombia low sustains fresh to strong NE winds off the NW coast of Colombia, with rough seas also analyzed in the region. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas persist across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will force fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning through mid week. In the remainder of the basin, the weather pattern will also support moderate to fresh breezes along with moderate seas through the period.

Atlantic Ocean

An elongated surface trough persists over the central Atlantic from 31N48W to near 20N50W. A broad upper level low is also centered near 26N49W, and is aiding in the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 18N to 31N between 42W and 51W. A pair of surface troughs are also analyzed over the eastern Atlantic, one from 28N21W to 18N27W and the other from 31N10W to near 17N22W. Another upper level low appears to be centered near 24N25W, with these three features resulting in widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms E of 28W between 13N and 29N.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, a cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N71W and extends to the FL coast near Cape Canaveral. No notable convection is associated with this front. Otherwise, a trade wind regime persists across much of the Atlantic, with recent scatterometer data indicating moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas confirmed by altimeter data prevailing across much of the Atlantic E of 50W, as well as S of 20N between the Lesser Antilles and 50W. Gentle to moderate NE winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front extends from 31N73W to Palm Bay, Florida and will reach from near Bermuda to Sebastian Inlet, Florida by early Mon. The eastern portion of the front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W to 27N70W by early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift back north as a warm front. High pressure will shift eastward off Carolina coast following the front, supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas over the region. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of a stronger front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Wed night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early Fri, followed by fresh northeast winds and building seas through Fri night.

Posted 53 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams