Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W to 07N26W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 08N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection convection prevails along the monsoon trough from 04N to 14N.

Gulf Of America

High pressure centered just offshore Florida continues to dominate Gulf weather, providing moderate or weaker SE winds and seas generally of 2 to 4 ft. The highest winds and seas are offshore TX and far NE Mexico, east of developing low pressure. The calmest conditions are offshore Florida.

For the forecast, mainly moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas will occur over the basin through the weekend as high pressure prevails over the southeastern U.S. Locally fresh NE winds will pulse in the eastern Bay of Campeche each afternoon and evening. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong SE winds may develop over the northwestern Gulf for the start of next week as low pressure strengthens in the south- central U.S.

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough along 70W is inducing scattered moderate convection just south of Hispaniola. The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered moderate to isolated strong convection along the Caribbean coast of Panama S of 11N. Fresh NE trades are present over much of the central and western basin, with gentle to moderate winds in the east. Moderate seas prevail. Locally strong winds and rough seas are present offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh E to NE winds are expected over the Caribbean into the start of next week as a moderate pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and low pressure in the south-central basin. Locally strong winds and rough seas will pulse offshore of Colombia starting this weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front extends from a 1016 mb low near 32N55W to 28N68W. Scattered moderate convection is along this front N of 28N between 58W and 65W. Extending south from the low is a surface trough that continues to 23N55W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along this trough N of 25N between 51W and 55W. In the far east Atlantic, a cold front stretches from 31N19W to 27N25W to 29N34W. Fresh NE winds and rough seas follow this cold front. Elsewhere, winds and seas are mainly moderate or less across the entire basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to occasionally fresh NE winds are expected north of Hispaniola and Cuba and into the Bahamas through Fri as high pressure prevails over the southeastern U.S. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere into the weekend. Increasing SW winds and building seas may occur offshore of northern Florida this weekend ahead of a cold front moving off the southeastern U.S.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik