Tropical Waves

A tropical wave has its axis along 69W south of 22N, moving westward around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 23N between 66W and 71.5W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues to near 10N22W. The ITCZ then is analyzed from 10N22W to 05N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 14N, and west of 46W.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front extends from 26N89W to 27.5N97.5W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted north of 25.5N and west of 90W. Recent satellite derived winds show winds near gale force within the strongest convection. Surface ridging dominates the rest of the basin with light to gentle winds. Slight seas prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will lift N tonight as a cold front enters the NW Gulf reaching from the Florida Panhandle to Tampico, Mexico early Sun, then from near Sarasota, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche early Mon, clearing the basin Mon night. Fresh to locally strong winds and moderate to locally rough will follow the front through Mon. High pressure will then follow the front supporting a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow by the middle of the week.

Caribbean Sea

Refer to the section above for details on a tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean.

A surface trough is analyzed from SE Cuba to offshore Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to strong convection is found along the trough and over the SW Caribbean, mainly W of 78W. Latest ASCAT data depicted moderate to fresh trades prevailing across areas E of 80W with gentle to moderate NE winds occurring across areas W of 80W. Moderate seas prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, a surface trough extending from eastern Cuba to offshore Nicaragua and Costa Rica will linger through tonight with moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds just W of it. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are in the wake of a tropical wave, currently moving across the eastern Caribbean, with axis near 69W. These winds will expand to the central Caribbean tonight into Sun as the wave continues to move westward across the central Caribbean through Mon. Moderate to locally rough seas will be associated with the wave. A cold front will to move across the NW Caribbean Mon night into early Tue while the above mentioned tropical wave is expected to merge with the frontal boundary or dissipate.

Atlantic Ocean

A frontal boundary is analyzed across the W Atlantic from 31N47W to the SE Bahamas. Scattered showers are noted along the front. To the E, another stationary front is analyzed across the eastern Atlantic from a 1012 mb low near 31N27W to 22N39W. A pre-frontal trough is also analyzed from 25N29W to 18N41W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen N of 23N between 18W and 29W. Latest scatterometer and altimeter data indicated fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas following the front. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, the pressure gradient between a 1021 mb high near 26N55W and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas across most areas S of 22N. Areas north of 22N and away from the fronts are seeing gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal trough from 31N65W to the SE Bahamas will move westward through Mon. Rough seas N of 29N and E of 65W will shift E through early Mon. A cold front is forecast to impact the region early next week, slowly shifting SE and reaching from 31N70W to the central Bahamas by Tue. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will follow the front through late Tue. The front will weaken and wash out through midweek with improving marine conditions.

Posted 1 hour, 41 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Krv