Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 09N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 14N and E of 44W.

Gulf Of America

A frontal boundary slowing making its way into the NW Gulf from SE TX is helping to induce scattered showers in the NW Gulf. A 1020 mb high pressure is centered near 27N86W, resulting in moderate or weaker winds in anticyclonic flow across the vast majority of the Gulf, except for the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche where moderate to locally fresh NE winds persist. Slight seas prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, a weak stationary frontal boundary is along the Texas coast will lift back north as a warm front on Sun. Expect fresh southerly flow off the Texas coast Sun night through Mon night supported by the gradient between low pressure over northeast Mexico and high pressure that will be centered just offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast. These winds will diminish Tue ahead of another front moving across the southern Plains. Looking ahead, this stronger front will move into the northwest Gulf early on Wed, then sweep to the southeast of the basin by late Thu, followed by fresh northeast winds and building seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front across the NW Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough parallels the coasts of Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica, leading to scattered moderate and isolated strong convection in the Caribbean generally S of 20N and W of 79W. Elsewhere, the combination between high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low is resulting in fresh to strong trade winds over most of the central Caribbean as captured by a recent scatterometer pass. Seas are 6-8 ft with these winds. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 3-6 ft are noted over the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will pulse offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning well into next week due to the pressure gradient resulting from the combination of high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure over northern Colombia and the south- central Caribbean. Rough seas can be expected with these winds. Elsewhere, the gradient will also support moderate to fresh trade winds along with moderate seas over the remainder of the basin through the period. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough are over the western Caribbean from 14N to 20N between 81W and 85W. Gusty winds are possible with this activity as it may linger into Sun night.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front enters the discussion waters near 31N58W and extends to near 26N66W. No significant convection is associated with this front. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N46W to 17N52W. This trough is interacting with an upper level trough with axis along 50W, leading to scattered moderate convection occurring N of 22N between 44W and 49W. Farther east, convergent surface winds are leading to the development of scattered showers to the SW of the Canary Islands.

Outside of convection, the pressure gradient between a 1032 mb high near 38N22W and lower pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to strong E to NE winds N of 23N and E of 45W, where seas of 7-10 ft are also analyzed. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate seas are prevalent E of the Lesser Antilles and S of 20N, as well as along the northern coasts of Cuba and Hispaniola. Elsewhere N of 20N and W of 50W, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending from near 31N59W southwestward to 26N67W will weaken and dissipate by early Sun evening. High pressure off east-central Florida will dissipate through Sun, ahead of another weak cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast early Sun. The front will reach from near Bermuda to Sebastian Inlet, Florida by early Mon. The eastern portion of the front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W to 27N70W by early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift back north as a warm front. High pressure will build north of the front off the Carolina coast, supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas across the region, with large NW swell following the front southeast of Bermuda. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast early Thu. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Thu night, followed by fresh northeast winds and building seas.

Posted 1 hour, 20 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams