Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from near 14N17W to 10N22W. The ITCZ extends 10N22W to 03N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm S of the monsoon trough and within 90 nm on either side of the ITCZ axis.

Gulf Of America

A weak stationary front that had been over the NE Gulf has dissipated early this morning. A surface trough has drifted west offshore the Yucatan Peninsula. High pressure centered north of the area is the dominant feature influencing Gulf weather this morning, inducing gentle to moderate SE winds over the central and western Gulf, and light winds over the eastern Gulf. Seas 2 to 4 ft in the western basin, and less than 2 ft in the east.

For the forecast, high pressure will build south toward the NE Gulf, allowing moderate to fresh SW winds to establish tonight through Thu over the central and western Gulf. Looking ahead, a weak cold front is likely to move into the northern Gulf by the weekend.

Caribbean Sea

A weak low of 1013 mb is spinning midway between the Isle of Youth, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands. This low is supporting scattered moderate convection over the offshore waters of central Cuba. Gentle to moderate NE winds are noted on the NW quadrant of the low center. Low pressure along the Colombian coast is also causing scattered moderate convection offshore Colombia and eastern Panama. Aside from the near aforementioned low, light to gentle winds dominate the NW Caribbean, with mainly gentle to moderate winds elsewhere, except locally fresh winds offshore Colombia. Seas are less than 2 ft in the NW basin, 2 to 4 ft elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, the low pressure center in the NW Caribbean will devolve into a surface trough today, move W to the Yucatan Channel tonight, then dissipate Wed. High pressure building from the north will gradually cause tradewinds to return to normal magnitude by mid- week, with moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds expected Wed into the weekend. Pulsing strong winds are likely offshore Colombia during the overnight and early morning hours.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak and slow moving cold front extends from near 31N63W to the NW Bahamas. N of the front, moderate N winds are ongoing, along with moderate, but decaying, seas. To the east, a surface trough that stretches from 30N58W to 23N62W is inducing scattered moderate convection N of 25N between 55W and 62W. Still farther E, a stationary front from 31N38W to 22N45W has scattered moderate convection within 90 nm W of it to the N of 25N. A surface trough is east of the Windward Islands along 56W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 08N to 12N between 48W and 57W in association with this trough. The tropical Atlantic S of 20N is dominated by moderate to fresh trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft. Similar conditions in NE winds are noted for all waters E of 35W. For the remainder of the basin, moderate or lighter winds prevail, with generally moderate seas. Rough seas in N swell are impacting waters N of 28N between 50W and 70W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will slide E today and weaken, stall tonight from around 31N58W to 27N70W, then dissipate Wed. High pressure will build S toward the waters in the wake of the front through late week, leading to gentle breezes N of 25N and moderate E winds to the south. Seas will gradually decay from moderate to slight from west to east across the area through late week. Looking ahead, SW winds may increase slightly off northeast Florida late Fri through Sat ahead of a weak cold front moving through the southeast U.S.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik