Special Features

Agadir Gale Warning: Gale-force winds follow a cold front moving into Morocco. Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the Agadir zone which will be valid through at least 14/06 UTC.

For more information, please refer to Meteo-France's website at: http://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W to 07N22W. The ITCZ continues from 08N40W to 06N57W along the coast of Guyana. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 05N-08N east of 20W.

Gulf Of America

A 1023 mb high pressure is centered near 29N87W. Fresh NE winds and moderate seas reach from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Channel, between this high pressure and lower pressure over the Caribbean. Gentle to moderate NE winds and slight seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered over the NE Gulf and relatively lower pressure to the south will allow for moderate to fresh northeast winds and moderate seas across the southeastern Gulf through Fri evening, including the Straits of Florida and Yucatan Channel. High pressure will slip SE through the weekend, leading to lighter winds in the SE Gulf and increasing southerly winds in the western Gulf. By Mon night and Tue, fresh winds will develop in the NW Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

A shearline extends from the Windward Passage to the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the Gulf north of Roatan. Fresh NE winds and moderate to rough seas are noted north of the shearline. High pressure north of the Caribbean along with a 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing NE to E fresh trades in the SW Caribbean with rough seas. Over the central and eastern Caribbean, the trades are moderate to fresh with moderate seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds to the S of Cuba will gradually diminish Fri as high pressure to the N weakens. Similar conditions offshore Colombia and Venezuela tonight will improve as the overall gradient weakens and a gentle to moderate trade wind regime becomes established for the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue west of about 80W through at least early Sat.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the Agadir zone.

A stationary front extends from 1015 mb low pressure near 31N53W to the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds and rough seas are noted north of the front, east of 70W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas extend across the southern Bahamas between the ridge and the easternmost front. An area of rough NW swell persists north of 22N between 40W and 60W. Over the eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong NW winds and rough to very rough seas follow the front mentioned in the Special Features section, north of 21N and east of 40W. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere east of 25W. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere across the basin, under the influence of 1020 mb high pressure centered near 28N40W.

For the forecast west of 55W, winds behind the W Atlantic front will diminish Fri as the front gradually dissipates into the weekend. Seas up to 10 ft E of 60W will decay below 8 ft by the weekend. A new cold front moving eastward away from the southeastern U.S. Overnight will lead to moderate to fresh west to northwest winds and locally rough seas north of 29N through tonight. The cold front is expected to reach the central Atlantic by late Fri. Looking ahead, a series of cold fronts passing north of the region this weekend will lead to strengthening winds and building seas over the northern forecast waters while weak high pressure prevails elsewhere. Conditions over these waters quiet down some early next week.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Era