U.S.
RESOURCES
EXPLAINERS
CHECKLISTS
UPDATES
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
Posted 2 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven
Special Features
Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong ridge north of the area and lower pressures in NW Colombia result in strong to near gale force NE-E winds, pulsing to gale force off of Colombia each night and morning through the middle of next week. Rough to localized very rough seas are expected near the strongest winds. Buoy 42058 located near 14.5N75W is reporting seas of 11 ft.
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from near Apalachicola, Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico. The front will slowly progress southeastward overnight before stalling and eventually dissipating this weekend. Strong to gale-force NW winds currently off Veracruz will weaken to fresh to strong force later this morning. Rough to locally very rough seas will accompany the strongest winds, diminishing below 8 ft tonight.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 05N10W and continues SW to near 02N20W. The ITCZ extends from 02N20W to 01N27W and to 02N34W. A surface trough is analyzed from 07N31W to 01N37W. The ITCZ continues from 03N37W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 07N and between 25W and 50W.
Gulf Of Mexico
Please read the Special Features section regarding a Gale Warning in the SW Gulf.
A cold front extends from the Floria panhandle to the SW Gulf of Mexico. A few showers are noted in the NE Gulf ahead of the front. Aside from the gale-force winds off Veracruz, fresh to strong NE winds are evident behind the the front and south of 25N. Moderate to rough seas are present in these waters. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and moderate seas are occurring behind the frontal boundary and in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate southerly winds and slight to moderate seas are present ahead of the front in the NE Gulf. Elsewhere in the Gulf, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, a cold front extending from the Florida Panhandle southwestward to Veracruz, Mexico will slowly progress southeastward overnight before stalling and eventually dissipating this weekend. Moderate to fresh N to NW winds, with locally strong winds, will occur behind this front overnight. Winds will briefly reach gale force tonight offshore of Veracruz, and very rough seas will accompany these winds. Winds will diminish from north to south through Sat morning. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the Gulf this weekend through early next week.
Caribbean Sea
Please read the Special Features section regarding a Gale Warning over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia.
A robust subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic continues to dominate the Caribbean Sea. Outside of the south-central Caribbean, fresh to strong easterly trade winds prevail across the eastern, central and SW Caribbean. Moderate to rough seas are noted in these waters. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas are noted south of 20N in the NW Caribbean, while light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the area.
For the forecast, pulsing gale force winds are expected each night and morning offshore of Colombia as a tight pressure gradient persists between ridging in the western Atlantic and low pressure over northwestern Colombia. Very rough seas of 12 to 14 ft are anticipated with these winds. Fresh trades will occur across the southwestern, central and eastern Caribbean through the middle of next week, with winds pulsing to fresh speeds in the northwestern Caribbean by early next week. Pulsing strong winds are expected in the central Caribbean, as well as through the Windward Passage and downwind of Hispaniola. Rough seas will accompany the fresh winds in the southwestern and central Caribbean. Elsewhere, residual E swell will combine with new N swell this weekend, leading to locally rough seas near the Windward and Leeward Islands and through the passages into the Caribbean through next week. Otherwise, slight to moderate seas are expected in the northwestern Caribbean.
Atlantic Ocean
A cold front extends from 31N41W to 25N52W, then followed by a shear line to northern Hispaniola. Behind the front, a surface trough stretches from 30N46W to 27N60W and to 29N68W. No deep convection is noted near these boundaries. The rest of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence a strong subtropical ridge north of the area. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and lower pressures associated with the cold front in the Gulf result in fresh to strong southerly winds and moderate to rough seas north of 28N and west of 70W. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and moderate to rough seas are present in the remainder of the SW North Atlantic.
The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1035 mb high pressure system between the Azores and Madeira Islands. The tight pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa and deep tropics result in fresh to near gale-force N-NE winds south of a line from 31N22W to 25N55W and east of 55W. This was captured by the latest satellite-derived wind data. These winds are sustaining rough to locally very rough seas, with the highest seas occurring north of the Cabo Verde Islands and between the Canary Islands and Morocco. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas are evident south of 20N and between 50W and the Lesser Antilles. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between high pressure in the central Atlantic and a cold front moving through the southeastern United States will support widespread fresh E to SE winds north of 22N overnight into Sat morning. Strong S winds will be possible off the coast of Florida, north of 28.5N, overnight. The cold front will push off the southeastern coast of the US overnight and progress eastward before eventually stalling and dissipating this weekend. Winds will diminish in the aforementioned areas by Sat afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes between the cold front and the ridge. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E winds and rough seas will prevail south of 22N through the middle of next week. North of 22N, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are expected for Sun through early next week.
Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado