As September comes to a close, all eyes turn to October and with it, hope for our first “real cold front.”
By that, I mean a front strong enough to keep daytime highs in the 70s for at least three days in a row. That kind of front almost always arrives in October, though there are exceptions. For example, in 2020, it showed up early, on September 20.
Here’s a look back at when the first real cold front arrived over the past five years.
Last year really stood out; our first real cold front didn’t arrive until mid-November. Because we missed a strong October front, October 2024 ended up as the third-warmest October on record.
I get emails from viewers saying, “If it doesn’t get cold, you can’t call it a cold front.” If we are being meteorologically accurate, a cold front is simply an advancing surface air mass that changes the wind direction and drops temperatures. That drop might be only a few degrees, but if the air mass changes, a cold front has passed. That’s why, sometimes on TV, I’ll say “cool front,” it’s just a conversational way to match what people expect.
We actually had two cold fronts move through Houston in September. Can you spot them below? I drew arrows to help.
They’re harder to see when you only look at daytime highs, but they jump out in the morning lows. Cold fronts push out humid air and replace it with drier air from the north; dry air cools off faster at night, which is why those morning lows drop into the 60s.
Ready to play?
I’ll go first. Now, there isn’t any official science behind this because we’re defining a “real cold front” as three straight days with highs in the 70s. But I would guess that our first one will arrive on Wednesday morning, October 22. That would give us highs in the 70s on the 22nd, 23rd, and 24th.
What do you think? Make your prediction by replying below, emailing me at ayanez@kprc.com, or dropping a comment on my social pages @kprc2anthony.
Cold fronts and hurricane season:
You’ve probably heard the phrase “old wives’ tale.” Well, in this case, let’s call it an “old meteorologist’s tale.” The saying goes: Once Texas sees its first cold front, hurricane season is over!
Now there is science behind this: Cold fronts alter our weather patterns by changing the jet stream flow and bringing more northerly winds. Those winds act like a barrier, steering storms away from us. Hurricanes follow the path of least resistance, and when a north wind sets up, it’s almost like putting up a brick wall. The storms don’t stop; they just get redirected, usually toward Mexico, Florida, or the East Coast.
Take a look at the image below, it’s a great example of how this pattern change works.
You might be thinking, “Well, that’s just one cold front. Once it passes, couldn’t a southerly wind return and steer storms back toward us?” The answer is yes, but here’s the key: once the first strong front arrives, others follow. Just like we saw in September, when one weak front was followed by another two weeks later, October tends to bring more frequent fronts. And once that pattern sets up, the “brick wall” effect stays in place.
Our last hurricane:
Here’s a little history for you: the latest a tropical system has ever hit southeast Texas was Hurricane Jerry on October 15, 1989. Jerry made landfall near Jamaica Beach as a Category 1 storm with winds of 85 mph. And since records began in 1842, no storm has ever hit us after that date.
So maybe the better question is this: did our hurricane season already end back on September 7, or will it officially wrap up with our first “real” cold front sometime in October?