An historic calm in the Atlantic during peak hurricane season:
HOUSTON – If it feels unusually quiet in the tropics right now, you’re not imagining it. We haven’t seen a single named storm since August 29. And if we make it through Tuesday, September 16, without one, it will be a rare milestone. In fact, since reliable record-keeping began in 1950, only one other year, 1992, went this long in the Atlantic without a named storm.
Recommended Videos
Watching the next system, but Gabrielle will stay out of the Gulf:
It’s going to be a close call. The disturbance we’ve been tracking in the Atlantic has a 90% chance of developing into a tropical storm within the next two days. When it does form, it will be named Gabrielle.
The good news: Gabrielle won’t move into the Gulf, and it may even miss the U.S. East Coast. The most likely scenario has the system curving northward and heading out into the open Atlantic.
Gulf conditions are ripe for storms, but wind shear is the real blocker:
It’s not for lack of fuel we’ve been so silent. Gulf waters are running hot; surface temperatures range from 84 to 88 degrees. And it’s not just the surface; ocean heat content, which measures warmth at deeper levels, is exceptionally high in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf.
The Loop Current stands out clearly, and that’s always a concern because it can provide the energy for rapid intensification of tropical systems.
Gulf and Caribbean wind shear:
Despite all the right ingredients for hurricane development, wind shear is shutting storms down before they can get going. Wind shear refers to strong, opposing winds higher in the atmosphere.
For tropical systems to grow, winds from the ocean surface up to about 5,000 feet need to blow at the same speed and in the same direction. Right now, the Gulf and Caribbean are seeing the opposite: powerful shear that rips storms apart, making it nearly impossible for them to organize, even with all that warm water available to fuel them.
Season remains well below average in strength:
Looking ahead, the chances for hurricane development in the Gulf remain low; about 10% a week and a half from now. In the graphic below, you can see Gabrielle has a 40% chance of being a hurricane on September 25.
So far this season, only six named storms have developed. Most have been relatively weak, with just one: Erin, which briefly reached Category 5 strength well away from land. Overall, the season’s accumulated cyclone energy, which measures the combined strength and duration of storms, is running about 50% below average for this time of year.
The latest time a hurricane made landfall in Southeast Texas was October 16, when Category 1 Jerry came ashore. For now, we need wind shear to stay strong a little while longer. I’ll continue to keep you updated on how the rest of this hurricane season unfolds.
To watch the video version of this story, click below.