Why do we monitor even the weakest tropical disturbances?

No matter how weak or strong a tropical disturbance it is important to watch them

TEXAS – This week, we are monitoring an unorganized zone of thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical development.

While current forecasts show only a low chance of the system organizing, don’t let your guard down this hurricane season.

Forecasted to bring rain across the Gulf Coast

The cautious approach comes with good reason.

Just five years ago, on July 25, 2020, Hurricane Hanna made landfall on Padre Island as a Category 1 storm, leaving South Texas communities flooded, wind-damaged, and without power for days.

Initially, Hanna appeared as just another unorganized tropical wave that had encountered shear as it traveled into the Gulf. However, as it moved into the warm Gulf waters, the system rapidly organized and intensified while approaching the Texas coast.

Track across the Gulf from NWS

Rapid intensification occurs when a tropical system’s wind speeds increase by 35 mph within 24 hours. In Hanna’s case, the storm’s winds jumped from 50 mph to 90 mph in just one day.

This phenomenon has become increasingly common in the Gulf of Mexico, where exceptionally warm waters act as high-octane fuel for developing storms.

The warmer the water and the deeper that warm water means more fuel for a hurricane. That warm water means warm air above it, and warm air rises. When it rises into the atmosphere, it cools down, releasing its energy, leading to a strengthening hurricane.

Projected to happen more often

Here are examples of six storms that have undergone rapid intensification in the Gulf waters.

Storms that underwent rapid intensification in recent history that turned to major hurricanes

For Gulf Coast residents, these patterns underscore an important reality: preparation can’t wait for a storm to form. Stay informed, stay prepared, and never assume a storm will remain weak just because it starts that way.


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