We’ve lived through more than our share of tropical storms and hurricanes over the years. The Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900 still stands as the deadliest natural disaster in U.S. history. And I’ll never forget my first day at KPRC 2, July 15, 2003, when Hurricane Claudette made landfall in Galveston and moved right into Houston.
Fast forward to July 1, 2024, my first day as chief meteorologist here at KPRC 2.
And wouldn’t you know it, I was already tracking a hurricane: Beryl. It became the earliest Category 5 ever recorded in the Atlantic. My first thought? “Of course, it’s going to hit us, I just started a new job.”
And it did. Now, a year later, I want to take a moment to reflect.
Every storm is different, with its own unique risks and challenges. But each one teaches us something. These are my top five takeaways from Hurricane Beryl, lessons we need to carry with us as we prepare for whatever comes next.
1) Don’t “anchor” to the first forecast you see
How many of us remember the first forecast we saw of Beryl in the Gulf? I’m guessing most of us do. That early track showed the storm heading toward Mexico or South Texas and that image stuck with us. There’s a reason for that. It’s called anchoring.
Anchoring is a cognitive bias where our minds latch onto the first piece of information we receive. It becomes our reference for all future information. You’ve probably experienced it at work: someone shares an early update or idea, and everything that follows is filtered through that first impression. Even when the facts change, it can be hard to shift our thinking.
That’s exactly what happened with Beryl. The initial forecast had it tracking far south of us, and despite updates and changes, many people stayed anchored to that early outlook. On air, I would say, “This is the forecast for now... Here is why it may change... I’m watching this and will update you with changes to the forecast...” But if your mind is already anchored somewhere else, those words are background noise.
We have to recognize this bias and learn to change our minds as forecasts evolve. Beryl was a perfect reminder of how quickly things can shift and how important it is to stay open to new information.
2) If you’re in the cone you can take a direct hit
I’ve been forecasting hurricanes for 22 years, and there’s still a lot of confusion about what the hurricane cone actually shows. I’ll dive deeper into this in a future article, but here’s the short version: the cone represents where the center of the storm is expected to be two-thirds of the time.
Take a look at this image from July 3, 2024. Was Houston in the cone? Yes. That’s one of the reasons I said on air Wednesday, “We need to start thinking about this being our storm.”
Not everyone agreed. I got an email from someone accusing me of hyping the storm and trying to scare people. I responded: “Let’s wait and see what happens, then we can talk.” They never wrote back.
Storm forecasting isn’t about fear, it’s about preparation. And understanding what the cone means is a big part of getting ready.
There was a reason I thought Beryl might end up hitting us. Hurricane models have a well-known tendency called a “left-of-track error.” That means when a storm is forecast to move west, it often ends up shifting east. In fact, five out of six times, a storm in the Gulf will move east.
We’ve seen this pattern before. Look at the significant eastward shift in the track four days before Hurricane Ike in 2008 and again with Beryl. Even Rita had the same issue.
It’s one of the reasons I was cautious early on. History and model behavior matter. And in this case, they were sending a clear signal that Houston needed to pay close attention.
3) Don’t focus on the category, focus on the impact to where you live
If I had a nickel for every time someone told me, “There is no way Beryl was a Category 1 hurricane. It had to be stronger. Look at all the damage.”
The facts are that there was not one place that experienced hurricane-force winds higher than 95 miles per hour. In fact, no one had wind gusts above 95 mph. That should tell us something.
It doesn’t have to be a major hurricane to cause major damage. Every storm is different. When you get several hours of strong, persistent winds, trees come down, fences snap, and roofs take a beating.
Before Beryl made landfall, I had friends say to me, “It’s just a Category 1.” But “just a” isn’t a forecast category and it’s definitely not a reason to let your guard down.
I hope Beryl serves as a reminder for all of us: even a Category 1 hurricane can cause serious damage. The next time one is heading our way, let’s not underestimate it.
3) When a tropical watch or warning is issued, you will lose power
This brings us to the one thing many of us still remember most: losing power. Even a year later, the experience of being without electricity after Beryl is still palpable.
And here’s the reality: if the eye of a hurricane hits us, we’re going to lose power. It happened with Alicia in 1983, Ike in 2008, and again with Beryl in 2024.
Hurricanes are nature’s way of pruning trees but unfortunately, our power lines are often in the way.
After Hurricane Ike, CenterPoint Energy spoke at the National Hurricane Conference and shared the slide below, outlining how long power outages can last after a direct hit.
In today’s world, we lose our minds after just two days without power. But storms like Beryl remind us: This is part of what comes with a direct hit.
CenterPoint has said they’ll continue working to restore power as quickly as possible in future storms. But here’s the real question:
How prepared are you to live without power when the next hurricane hits? Take a look at the slide and let me know your thoughts.
4) The deadliest part of a tropical system is after the storm passes
It wasn’t long ago that the deadliest part of a hurricane was storm surge. Thanks to major advances in forecasting and stronger public awareness, many people now evacuate when warned. That’s a huge win. But it has also changed the story of where and how people lose their lives during hurricanes.
Today, more people die from rip currents than storm surges, and those deaths can happen hundreds of miles away from the storm’s center.
With Beryl, the greatest loss of life came from something else entirely: heat. When the power went out, vulnerable people had no way to cool down. Most of the deaths were caused by hyperthermia, a reminder that the most dangerous part of a hurricane often comes after the winds die down.
One final thought: Have a plan, not just for before and during the storm, but especially after it passes.
The days following a hurricane are often the hardest: no power, limited resources, and uncertainty. That’s when community matters most: Get to know your neighbors. In the aftermath of the next big storm, they might be your first responder, or you might be theirs.
Preparedness is more than stocking up. It’s about connection, communication, and resilience together.
