Let me start by saying I’m always fascinated by how seasonal hurricane forecasts come together.
Whether it’s a private company, a university, or a government agency, each one takes a slightly different approach, analyzing current weather patterns and comparing them to previous years, factoring in ocean temperatures, long-term climate trends, and whether we’re in an El Niño, La Niña, or Neutral phase. All of these play a role, and every agency weighs them differently.
NOAA Hurricane Forecast: What does this mean for Houston in the 2025 tropical season?
On Thursday morning, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its outlook for the upcoming hurricane season. But if you were watching the press conference like I was, the actual forecast didn’t get much attention.
Most of the questions focused on recent budget cuts and whether those cuts would affect NOAA’s ability to respond when a storm threatens. Officials were quick to reassure everyone: “The National Hurricane Center is fully staffed and ready for the season!”
As for the forecast itself, NOAA is calling for an above-average season: 13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes.
NOAA’s forecast is the last of the major seasonal hurricane outlooks to be released. By my count, there are at least 22 official agencies that issue their own forecasts, and if you search online, you’ll find even more.
Most of these forecasts are calling for an average to above-average season. But that raises this question: What does “an above-average season” actually mean?
My issue with seasonal hurricane forecasts isn’t the prediction itself, it’s how people react to it.
How do we “prepare for an above-average season”? You can’t prepare for a number. You prepare for one storm. One storm. Because that’s all it takes to change lives, homes, and communities.
The mindset we need then, heading into every hurricane season, is this: assume multiple storms will form, and one could hit us. That’s the only way to stay ready. Most years, we won’t take a direct hit, and we’ll move on with our lives. Those are the good years.
RELATED: Get ready for another busy Atlantic hurricane season, but maybe not as crazy as 2024
But after every major hurricane impact, I hear the same thing: “I didn’t know it was going to be this bad.” And “I wish someone had told me.”
Here’s the truth: seasonal forecasts only tell us how many storms might form, not where they’ll go or how strong they’ll be. And that distinction is crucial.
So, is there a way to get more specific about where storms might track or intensify? At KPRC 2, we’ve partnered with WeatherBELL and their lead forecaster, Joe Bastardi. Joe is a recognized hurricane expert who successfully predicted the formation zones and landfall areas for the strongest storms last season. Here is his forecast this season.
According to WeatherBELL’s forecast, the areas most vulnerable this season are the East Coast and Florida. That’s where we could see an above-average ACE, Accumulated Cyclone Energy, which is a measure of the intensity and duration of storms. On the other hand, Bastardi is forecasting a below-average ACE for the Bay of Campeche and coastal Mexico.
My concern this season:
Just because we’re not in the primary hurricane track doesn’t mean we’re in the clear.
In seasons like this, leftover boundaries or stalled fronts near the coast can become breeding grounds for tropical development. These systems can spin up quickly, sometimes just offshore, and that leaves very little time to prepare. It’s not just a hypothetical. It’s happened before.
SEE ALSO: The truth is, more than 90% of Houston isn’t ready for a hurricane
The most sobering example for us here in Houston is Hurricane Alicia in 1983. It formed just south of Louisiana, and within three days, it made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane, right here! And that was in a year with only four named storms.
It only takes one. That’s why the number of storms in the forecast matters far less than how we prepare for any one storm.
