Let me start by sharing that this forecast comes from WeatherBELL, a private forecasting company with whom we have an exclusive partnership here in Houston. I’m also fortunate to call Joe Bastardi, who creates their hurricane forecast, a personal friend.
Back in January of last year, I shared Joe’s outlook for the 2024 hurricane season, which he predicted would be a “Monster Hurricane” season. That forecast sparked a fair amount of concern and skepticism, with some in the meteorological community questioning the accuracy of such a long-range prediction. I’ll let you decide how that forecast held up, but it raises an important question: Is a bad hurricane season defined by the number of storms or by their impact?
To put things in perspective, last year ended up as the second most expensive hurricane season on record, trailing only 2017. Below, you’ll find WeatherBELL’s forecast from last year alongside this year’s outlook. As you’ll notice, the total number of storms in 2024 was lower than Bastardi predicted, but the impact was a different story entirely.
2024 impact on the United States:
Back in January of 2024, Bastardi emphasized the defining factor of a hurricane season wouldn’t just be the number of storms, but the impact those storms would have on the United States. In hindsight, this forecast stands out as one of the most impressive long-range outlooks I’ve seen.
The image below illustrates this beautifully.
The red shading marks the primary development region Bastardi identified for storms in 2024, while the red dots indicate the U.S. landfall impacts. The second image offers a closer, more detailed view of those storms.
It’s remarkable to see how accurately this forecast captured the season’s reality months in advance.
WeatherBELL 2025 hurricane forecast:
This hurricane season is shaping up quite differently from last year.
We’re transitioning out of a weak La Niña pattern, which typically signals a more active hurricane season, and moving toward an El Niño pattern expected to develop at the start of summer. Interestingly, this El Niño isn’t expected to significantly impact the number of storms that form.
According to Joe Bastardi, there aren’t any clear landfall signals this year like we saw last season. He instead, anticipates fewer direct impacts on the United States overall, though the East Coast appears to be the most vulnerable to a landfall. Another concern is the potential for storms to develop close to the coastline, which would leave less time to prepare. On a positive note, the Atlantic Ocean is noticeably cooler than it was at this time last year, which could help keep storm numbers slightly lower as we enter the peak of the season.
There’s much more detail in the full forecast, but since WeatherBELL is a private company, that information is behind a paywall.
What to do with this information:
It’s hard to think about hurricane season with such a winter rollercoaster. However, it’s never too early to review your family’s plan as we look ahead to the upcoming season. After experiencing Beryl, now is a great time to apply those lessons learned. Take a moment to ensure you’re comfortable with your home and flood insurance coverage.
Let’s hope the biggest challenges we face this summer are just the heat and humidity.
As always, the Storm Tracker 2 team will be here, watching and tracking every storm that forms this season, keeping you informed and prepared.
