HOUSTON – Nearly 100 days before the special election for Texas’ 18th Congressional District, a new survey from the University of Houston is showing four candidates deadlocked in their respective bids.
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The Hobby School of Public Affairs conducted the survey between July 9 and July 18 with registered Harris County voters to examine their intentions and who is likely to cast their vote in the special election. The survey sampled 400 likely voters in Harris County, with a margin of error of +/- 4.90%.
The summarized results revealed that some candidates are neck-and-neck in terms of favorability. This means the election may end up in a runoff to be held either in January or February 2026.
“Christian Menefee and Amanda Edwards are tied with a vote intention of 19%, enjoying a modest advantage over Republican Carmen Maria Montiel and Democrat Jolanda Jones who are tied at 14%,” the survey explained. “The field of the six most visible candidates who were included on this test ballot is rounded out by George Foreman IV, who is running under the Independence Party label, with 4%, and Democrat Isaiah Martin with a vote intention of 3%. More than one in four (27%) of these likely voters remain undecided about for whom they will vote in the TX-18 special election.”
With several candidates lined up to represent the district, which has remained unseated since March, the results from the survey further demonstrate how heated the race has become.
Back in April, Governor Greg Abbott called for the special election in November, but was met with criticism by District 18 candidates for the delay. He defended his actions by citing “repeat failures” in Harris County elections, but this was viewed as a copout by opponents.
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For a deeper dive into the survey’s findings and detailed voter demographics, see the full survey below:
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