The tropics have been quiet but now all eyes are on the a tropical disturbance trying to organize in the eastern Gulf. There is an upper-level low pressure area off the coast of Florida. If this low can sink to the surface, it could become our next named storm. The chances of this forming over the next 7 days is now 50%.
The latest model data shows most model solution keeping the heaviest rain in the eastern Gulf, with best rain chances from Florida to Louisiana. With the help of high pressure and a approaching front, this could help stop the disturbance from reaching southeast Texas.
Right now the heaviest rainfall is well east of southeast Texas.
But here’s the catch: History tells us that there could still be a slight opening for development and movement into southeast Texas. This will depend on the high-pressure system to our north. The high pressure’s placement will determine if there is an opening for the low to drift farther west.
So next week, it’s really a battle between the model guidance and the larger-scale weather pattern. For now, I’m keeping Houston dry, but we’ll be watching closely and will update the forecast if that low starts heading our way.