It’s no secret we’ve been running dry and the latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows conditions worsening across much of Southeast Texas.
While we’re not seeing the worst drought category (D4 – “Exceptional”) just yet, Extreme Drought (D3) has now pushed into Colorado, Jackson, Austin, and Wharton counties. Severe drought (D2) has spread into some of our biggest counties, including Harris, Fort Bend, Montgomery, Brazoria, Liberty, and several others. Most of the rest of the region is dealing with moderate drought.
If you’re thinking “This has gotten worse fast…” you’re right. Over the last four weeks, almost every county has seen drought conditions intensify. The only small bright spots? Slight improvement around Houston and Madison counties in our northern counties.
What’s causing the expansion?
Simply put: too warm + too little rain.
Over the past month:
🌧️ Rainfall was:
- Only 1–2 inches along and south of I-10
- 2–4 inches up in the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley
- Just 25–50% of what we’d normally expect
🌡️ Temperatures were:
- 4–8° above normal over the last 7–30 days
Those two together, hotter weather and very little rain, pulled moisture out of the ground faster than it could be replaced. From the graphic below, you can see we need 10.50″ to 13.50″ of rain to end the drought in southeast Texas.
Impacts we’re seeing now:
💧 Hydrology: Rivers and streams west of the Brazos River are running below to much below normal.
🌱 Agriculture: Soil moisture levels are very low across the region, especially south of I-10, where values fall in the 1st to 5th percentile (that’s about as dry as it gets).
🔥 Fire danger: Dry vegetation means greater wildfire concerns. As of November 14th, burn bans are in effect in 17 counties, including Harris, Fort Bend, Galveston, Brazos, Liberty, and more.
Reservoir snapshot (as of Nov. 14)
- Lake Somerville - 83%
- Lake Conroe - 95%
- Livingston Reservoir - 95%
- Lake Houston - 98%
- Lake Texana - 72%
So far, lakes closer to Houston are holding up better than those farther southwest.
Looking Ahead:
For November:
- Temperatures: Higher odds of staying warmer than normal
- Rainfall: Near average. That’s better than nothing but we need above-average rain to put a dent in the drought.
Beyond this month, the NOAA winter outlook has a 30%-40% chance of below-average precipitation through February.
This week:
There is rain in the forecast for Thursday and Friday. The heaviest rain falls in central and north Texas. They need it too. We have more expected next Tuesday, too, from a cold front. Let’s hope we get another good soaking.
Bottom line:
The dryness isn’t just in the forecast; it’s already here. We’ll keep watching how things evolve, especially as wildfire risk climbs and water levels respond to the lack of rain. From my experience, once we get into a drought, it’s really hard to get out of it. But there will be a major pattern change at some point, but it will certainly come with flooding. If you’ve lived here long enough, you know this is how it goes.