HOUSTON – We’re continuing our storm chance talks as we head into the end of the week. Friday, specifically, has the highest chance of more widespread activity.
A severe thunderstorm watch has just been issued for Brazos County and Burleson County, two counties northwest of Houston. The watch is until 9 p.m. this evening.
Here’s the latest timeline:
Friday afternoon
Pop-up, scattered thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon hours Friday. This is still conditional, just like Thursday’s storm chance if the “cap” can break.
Read: EXPLAINER: Why Houston missed the storm bullet Thursday morning
Starting around 1 p.m., we could see storms starting to form in our eastern counties.
The further we get into Friday afternoon, more robust storms are possible north and east of Harris County. The chance could stick around as we get into the dinnertime hours.
Friday evening
This scenario seems more likely. As the cold front begins pushing closer to our area, it’ll help break the “cap” and allow for storms to pop off. Some could quickly become strong to severe.
Between 6 p.m. and 8 p.m., a line of storms forms out ahead of the incoming cold front, entering into our northernmost counties.
By the evening, the line pushes south. Houston remains relatively rain-free through most of the evening.
Overnight Friday to Saturday
As the front backs up to Houston, a majority of the line starts to fall apart. Showers and rowdy thunderstorms are possible in the overnight hours as we sleep through the night Friday into Saturday.
Once we get into the early morning hours of Saturday, the front will have passed through Houston, pushing the activity to the Gulf.
Severe risk Friday
We’ve seen consistency in computer model runs of potential strong to severe storms for Friday.
A level 1 out of 5 includes the southern portions of Harris County, Liberty County, Fort Bend County, and Wharton County, and all of Chambers County, Brazoria County, and Matagorda County.
A higher, level 2 out of 5 includes northern portions of Harris County, Liberty County, Fort Bend County, Wharton County, and all of the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods areas.
All modes of severe weather are possible Friday, but the main threats include large hail and damaging winds.
With some of the heavier storms, they could dump a decent amount of rain in a short window. This raises the risk of flash flooding from a level 1 out of 5 along our coastal communities to a level 2 out of 5 further inland.
Continue to stay weather aware as we get through the next 24-36 hours. The good news: the weekend forecast looks great!