Experts warn Houston should prepare for a potentially severe respiratory season after new vaccination data shows declines in several adult vaccines and public trust in health authorities is weakening.
Key findings
- IQVIA vaccination data (pharmacies, mail-order and long‑term care) for August through November 21, 2025 shows:
- COVID-19 adult vaccinations down about one‑third compared with last year.
- Influenza vaccinations in retail channels down roughly 6% versus the same period in 2024.
- RSV vaccinations also declined in retail channels.
- Pneumococcal vaccine administrations rose nearly one‑third, driven in part by guideline changes recommending vaccination for adults 50 and older (previously 65+).
Note: this IQVIA dataset covers retail channels only and does not include vaccinations given in doctors’ offices, hospitals or other non‑retail settings.
Why experts are concerned
Former CDC directors, Dr. Tom Frieden and Dr. Rochelle Walensky, and infectious disease expert Dr. Peter Hotez from Texas Children’s Hospital Center for Vaccine Development, Baylor College of Medicine, who reviewed the data this week, say the declines represent real gaps in population protection that could lead to more illnesses, hospitalizations and deaths this winter.
Highlights from the expert panel:
- Public health risk: Dr. Hotez pointed to recent outbreaks — including a measles epidemic that hospitalized roughly 100 children in Texas and resulted in two deaths — and warned that a six‑fold increase in pertussis (whooping cough) between 2023 and 2024 shows how quickly vaccine‑preventable diseases can return if coverage falls.
- Vaccine uptake and consequences: Dr. Tom Frieden said lower vaccination rates and weakened public‑health capacity leave the U.S. less prepared to detect and respond to outbreaks.
- Safety, data review and oversight: Dr. Rochelle Walensky emphasized the importance of rigorous, transparent scientific review. She and the Vaccine Integrity Project reviewed thousands of studies this past summer and published a peer‑reviewed summary in the New England Journal of Medicine; she urged clinicians and families to consult the scientific evidence when making vaccine decisions. She also noted that last year produced more pediatric flu deaths than seen in the previous 15 years, underscoring the stakes of this season.
What’s driving the trends?
Panelists cited several contributing factors:
- Information and trust: A recent NFID survey cited during the webinar found just 13% of U.S. adults name the CDC as their most trusted source for vaccine information. Experts warned that inconsistent messaging, internal policy changes and news headlines can erode trust and slow vaccine uptake.
- Access and affordability: Even where vaccines are available at pharmacies, experts stressed the need to preserve cost‑free access. Historical data show that out‑of‑pocket costs or co‑payments reduce use of essential preventive services.
- Policy and political dynamics: Panelists raised concerns about recent shifts in vaccine oversight bodies and guidance processes, urging that scientific experts and current data drive recommendations.
What this means for you
Public‑health experts gave straightforward advice:
- Get vaccinated: Adults and children eligible for shots should get vaccinated. Those eligible for RSV or pneumococcal vaccines should follow current guidance and consult their clinician.
- Talk to your clinician: Primary care providers remain a trusted source of vaccine guidance. Ask about which vaccines are recommended for you or your family.
Why vaccine technology still matters
Panelists also defended modern vaccine technologies, including mRNA platforms, as critical tools for rapid vaccine development and future pandemic preparedness. They noted the strong safety and effectiveness record during the COVID‑19 pandemic and cautioned against sidelining technologies that could accelerate responses to emerging threats.
Bottom line
Experts say we are entering a concerning respiratory season: lower vaccination rates, recent outbreaks of vaccine‑preventable diseases and eroding trust in public health institutions could combine to make this winter worse than recent years. The clearest action individuals can take is to follow current vaccine recommendations and talk to their health care provider about timely immunization.