Game day has finally arrived and the Texans are ready to go after their second win over the Chiefs this season. They won 31-24 at Arrowhead Stadium back in mid-October proving they could beat one of the NFL’s top teams.
Now it’s time to get the job done when the stakes are really high in the playoffs. Both teams need a win to punch their ticket to the AFC Championship next Sunday against the Tennessee Titans who advanced Saturday night after upsetting the top seeded Baltimore Ravens 28-12. The Titans are the sixth seed in the AFC but have put all of the pieces together since week 7. Now they will sit back and watch this one today at Arrowhead to find out if they will play at NRG Stadium or Arrowhead Stadium seven days from now.
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So what will it take for the Texans to get out of here with a win today? What about the heavily favored Chiefs? Here are a few keys to surviving and advancing while taking one giant step closer to a trip to the Super Bowl in Miami.
Texans Keys to winning today over the Chiefs:
1. Run, run and run some more
That’s pretty much to the point. Carlos Hyde ran for over 180 yards in the win back in October. I believe to win in the NFL playoffs you absolutely have to establish an effective running attack. Hyde will extra motivated to produce against his former team on this big stage. The Offensive line was outstanding in the October win and for much of this season allowing Hyde to go for over one thousand yards. This Chiefs defense is stout and the NFL’s best in the past 7 weeks. Those yards may be much tougher to get today but the Texans have to make it their top priority. Get the run game going and that opens all kinds of options for Deshaun Watson to work his magic once again.
2. Keep Watson upright
This will be short and sweet. Keep the Chiefs hands off of Watson and pass protect like your life depends on it. That’s the challenge for this offensive line who will face a Chiefs defense that is stout up front and will blitz often today. Avoid the sacks and the offense will produce. KC has Chris Jones back . He missed the game in October. He and DL Frank Clark will bring the heat all day.
3. Fuller makes an impact
Will Fuller will play today but how much is still a mystery. He’s battled a groin injury so playing in cold weather probably isn’t ideal for his return. Keep Fuller on the field and the passing game will open up as Watson will look to get the likes of Fuller and Hopkins involved in a big way . Fuller was limited all week but practiced and appears ready for a return.
4. Play clean football
This is a factor every week but even more important on the road in the playoffs. Deshaun Watson and his offense need to avoid turnovers. Protect the pigskin and the Texans in the last few years has shown they will win football games. They have won three this season when they avoided the turnovers. Today would be a great day to do that again. Giveaways to this Chiefs offense and they will make you pay dearly for it.
5. Contain Mahomes and Chiefs WR weapons
Patrick Mahomes , like Watson, is also a 24 year old NFL Super Star. He has the total package and has weapons to get the football too with the likes of Tyreke Hill and Sammy Watkins. Both are speedsters and will test this Texans secondary which is shown this season to be vulnerable.
6. O’Brien vs. Reid coaching battle
Yes, this is also about the Head Coaches. Reid is battled tested in the playoffs while it’s still relatively new for O’Brien who has one career playoff win which came against the Oakland Raiders a few years back. Today will prove to be huge for the O’Brien era if he can help lead the Texans to an upset win. Houston is a heavy underdog with the lines at 9 to 10 points. That’s a big number any time but definitely in the playoffs. O’Brien needs to attack offensively and be aggressive with his play calling. Let Watson do what he does best and don’t over think the process today. Add in clock management and other key parts to the game and O-B needs to get it right today.
There are other keys but I believe these will be the deciding factors in whether or not the Texans win and advance. Can they do it? Sure they can but today the Texans need to play a near perfect game in all facets . We’ll will find out soon if the AFC Championship will be on the line at NRG Stadium or if the Texans offseason officially begins.
So, what about the Chiefs? What are their keys to a playoff win? After all, the Kansas City Chiefs are heavily favored (-9.5) vs. the Houston Texans in the AFC divisional round. The Vegas Line reflects how much the Chiefs have changed since the Week 6 matchup that saw the Texans win 31-24, after falling behind 17-3.
Houston managed to limit the amount of plays Mahomes got in the second half and shut down the hobbled reigning MVP.
Here’s a look at the three keys for the Chiefs to get the win on Sunday:
1. Go Deep
Even with improvements, the Texans have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. The Texans secondary is mostly healthier than it was against Kansas City in Week 6, but they will be starting players like Vernon Hargreaves (waived by Tampa Bay), Gareon Conley (Traded by Oakland) and Mike Adams (38 years old, signed as an in-season free agent).
The Chiefs have a fully healthy Tyreek Hill in this game. Hill played limited snaps in week 6, and wasn’t 100%. In that game he still caught two touchdowns including an early deep ball over Justin Reid. In the second half, Kansas City went away from the deep ball and weren’t able to get much going.
Kansas City should have plenty of success throwing deep if they try.
2. Shut down your old teammate
The Chiefs picked up Carlos Hyde in the offseason only to trade him to the Texans. Hyde remembered that and ran for 116 yards and a touchdown. Hyde also shushed the crowd after his score and clearly relished putting up a big game against a team that didn’t want him.
Kansas City has one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, and part of Houston’s win in Week 6 was the ability to grind down the clock. If the Chiefs can hold Hyde to short gains, they should have a good chance to lock down both the pass and the run.
3. Put the Texans away
The Texans have started slow for much of the season, but in certain games have been able to come back and win thanks to the magic of Deshaun Watson. Houston fell behind 17-3 and still beat the Chiefs. Houston fell behind 16-0 and still beat the Bills. A two-score deficit can be overcome. But, Houston has also been blown out and it shows that a 3rd score will be able to put the team away. The Ravens and Broncos have both taken huge, three-score leads and were able to hold on and put away the Texans. With a 17-3 lead, the Chiefs should have been able to hold on in Week 6. They didn’t. A 20-3 lead or a 24-3 lead should be enough to put away Houston.