HOUSTON – Eleven: That’s how many times in the history of the NBA Playoffs a team has come back from being down three games to one to win a best-of-seven series.
That’s the kind of less-than-stellar odds staring the Rockets in the face if they fail to hold serve at home in Game 4. If Houston is to return to Oakland tied with the defending champion Warriors at two games a piece, here are a few keys to a Game 4 victory:
1. Battle on the boards
The Rockets took Game 3 on Saturday thanks in part to a dominant performance on the glass. Houston out-rebounded Golden State 55-35, including 17 offensive boards to the Warriors' seven.
Against a team as talented as the two-time defending champion Warriors, no opponent can afford them extra possessions. Kevin Durant, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are halfway to the Hall of Fame already because of their ability to get hot at any moment. The Rockets cannot give them extra attempts at heating up.
In Houston’s Game 2 loss at Oracle Arena, the Warriors nabbed 18 offensive boards, a big reason why they were able to overcome 17 made three-pointers by the Rockets.
Houston’s crunch-time lineup obviously gives up a lot of size to the Warriors’ “Hamptons Five” of Steph, Klay, Andre Iguodala, KD, and Draymond Green, making it all the more imperative the Rockets are aggressive attacking the boards.
“We box out – period,” said Rockets forward P.J. Tucker after Saturday’s Game 3 win, in which he pulled down a team-high 12 boards. “We’re just more aggressive on the box outs.
“And everybody came in; we couldn’t leak out,” added Tucker.
Houston needs another collective effort to battle on the boards.
2. Home cooking for Harden
Typically, a player scoring 64 points in two road playoff games isn’t a cause for concern. Then again, James Harden is far from a typical player. Despite that impressive output in the first two games, the Rockets still fell behind in the series, 0-2.
As the reigning MVP – who legitimately challenged for best player in the league during the regular season – Harden needs to exceed his already lofty standards. Houston narrowly survived in overtime Saturday after The Beard dropped 41 points on 14-32 shooting while adding nine rebounds and six assists.
Harden was especially good once he got into the paint, whether dropping it off or connecting on his newfound floater. That kind of offensive brilliance must continue for Houston.
Yes, the Rockets need every person who checks into the game for them to make an impact – from Clint Capela and Tucker; to Eric Gordon, Chris Paul, Austin Rivers; and on down the line. But none of it matters if Harden isn’t special. The Warriors are 16-1 in their last 17 playoff series. That lone defeat came in the 2016 NBA Finals against LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers.
At this point in Harden’s Hall of Fame career, the one thing he has left to prove is finding that proverbial next level in the postseason. He’s been good to great thus far. For the Rockets to overcome the Warriors, he needs to be closer to transcendent (as he was during his historic scoring streak in the regular season).
The NBA playoffs are where legacies are cemented. Believe it or not, there was a time when critics said guys like LeBron, KD, and Dirk Nowitzki couldn’t “win the big one.” Now is Harden’s time to prove detractors wrong.
3. Play desperate
“It’s first to win four, so we got a lot of work to do.”
That was back-up point guard Austin Rivers’ blunt assessment of Houston’s Game 3 win. While the Rockets avoided the dreaded 0-3 deficit – which no team in NBA history has ever overcome – they know they’re still trailing in this series two-games-to-one.
“Every game’s a must-win for us, and we gotta play like that,” said Tucker.
That means doing all the little things that don’t typically end up on the highlights – playing physical, staying active on defense, taking care of the ball and not losing focus mentally.
“We say it all the time – you gotta play smart, not just hard,” said Rockets point guard Chris Paul on Sunday after practice.
“To win a championship, you’re talking about a lot of heart and a lot of character,” Rockets head coach Mike D’Antoni said Sunday.
“I think we’ll do an even better job going forward.”